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Utkarsh Gupta

Over $37.8 Billion Turnover Registered by Bitcoin, Ethereum Options

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During the month of November, the derivatives platform of cryptocurrency heralded towards news heights in the industry. Firstly, CME’s Open-Interest reached an Open-Interest near $1 billion and it completely opened the institutional path in Bitcoin’s market.

With institutional interest reaching a commendable high, Deribit’s recent institutional newsletter suggested a new monthly notional turnover record of over $14.3 billion; a new daily BTC options record. Over 25,000 Bitcoin contracts were registered as the platform’s open-interest ranged over $4.5 billion.

Bitcoin Volume Highs and price nears New ATH

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Bitcoin’s price has played an important role in the OI splurge on Deribit but Ethereum Options were able to draw significant attention as well. Over the month of November alone, Bitcoin’s value improved by 40% but Ethereum exhibited returns close to 56%. However, the sustainability of this rally was much higher in comparison to 2017.

In terms of number, Total turnover in USD was close to $37.8 billion in November, which was a whopping 123% above October 2020. The report added,

“750,123BTC options contracts were traded in November 2020, up 77% versus October 2020. 3,270,065ETH options contracts were traded in November 2020, up 95% versus October 2020.”

Increasing Volatility promoted interest, but dropping atm?

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While November clocked in the best Option Contracts volume for BTC and ETH on Deribit, now both the set of digital assets were leading towards its largest expiry. Close to 31% of Bitcoin OI will expire before 2021, and for Ethereum the value was above 44%.

This particular sentiment may lead to the sudden decline of expected volatility. As reported, volatility nearly doubled in November(reaching 84% from 49%), the recent at the money volatility structure exhibited a drop.

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Can the price drop with respect to dropping OI?

Temporarily yes. The Open-Interest execution would indicate that people will be cashing on their profits or losses over the course of December and short-term high liquidations may cause a little stir in the valuation.

However, the price of Bitcoin has been extremely stable during bouts of liquidation in 2020, as selling pressure has always been absorbed by rising buying pressure.

Hence, the price impact can be expected to be minimal, as Bitcoin and the collective market entertains another rally early next year.

Ethereum With High Implied Volatility May Push Price Above $800

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Ethereum will be attaining a new yearly high for 2020 above $600 very soon. Currently, at $590, the performance is off the charts and the largest altcoin coin is starting the current week on the right foot. However, keeping price aside, ETH’s on-chain properties were taking a divisive turn as well.

Ethereum is No-Longer driven by Whale Wallets

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Santiment, a cryptocurrency analysis platform reported over the past day that Ether’s present price hike is coupling with an increase in supply distribution.

As indicated in the chart above, The percentage of Ether held by the top 10 whale addresses has decreased down to its 11-month low. A couple of months ago, the number of Ether held by the top 10 whale wallets was close to 18.6% but at press time, it has dropped down to 12.1%.

Additionally, it was also mentioned the miner balance has held less than 80,000 ETH since July, which meant circulation has remained consistent.

Over the past couple of months, Ethereum has really taken a massive bullish turn and the fact it was not down to whale traders, meant more and more users were entering Ethereum’s ecosystem.

Another particular factor that is important to note is that ETH continues to have better on-chain exchange flow than Bitcoin, indicating a better organic market for the asset.

Implied Volatility is on the rise

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With an increasing valuation at the moment, Ether is currently exhibiting a period of high implied volatility as well. Implied Volatility pertains to the range at which the price might fluctuate in the chart over the next few days, and with the looks of it, Ethereum has a green-signal at a new yearly high.

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Its correlation with Bitcoin pictured a similar sentiment. While Bitcoin’s price has raised itself in value too, ETH can be observed to take a jump above BTC at the moment. If the market chart is broken down to Ethereum’s immediate daily resistance, it lies above the $800 mark.

Will Ethereum touch $800 by December-end?

While the jury is open for discussion, the collective market may see a period correction before that. At the moment, Bitcoin is under its longest bullish period in 2020, entering its 7th bullish week on the trot.

Such a parabolic rise is bound to blow up some time, leaving the rest of the market a little under the weather as well.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC passing $20k this week?

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Bitcoin is currently undergoing a rich performance period, as the King’s coin has overtaken multiple key levels in the past few weeks. Between October and November, Bitcoin was above 80 percent, currently valued just above $18,500. lIt was pretty obvious that Bitcoin was closing on its all-time high valuation of $20,000, but what are the chances that this might happen over the following week? Let’s find out.

Bitcoin hourly chart

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The short-term chart was under a strong bearish cycle over the past 24-hours. Bitcoin first dropped down to $17,610 and then re-test again at $18,000 after rising to $18,300. With respect to the charts, the asset is currently exhibiting a rising wedge pattern which is extremely bearish. At the moment, the immediate support is position at $18,000 and $17610. Ideally, the price should drop but we need to note that BTC has nullified other bearish patterns over the past couple of months.

Relative Strength Index or RSI suggested that the price may pump again over the next few hours, taking the valuation close to the last resistance at $19,350. MACD exhibited a present bullish trend as well.

Bitcoin hourly chart

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The long-term was more bullish than the short-term at the moment. Indicating the formation of a bullish flag, the pattern seems like it is approaching its last bullish breakout before ascending to a new high above $20,000. The long-term remained at $17,500, which was tested over the past 24 hours.

The position of Awesome Oscillator was still bearish though. As pictured, the bullish momentum seemed to be taking a bearish shift in the charts at the moment, but the collective market remained positive.

Verdict

It is hard to bet against Bitcoin after the asset has reached this high in the last couple of months. While the price charts scream of a depreciating run at the moment, the retail momentum may possibly take it above $20,000 over the current week. A quick re-test will be definitely one of the outcomes, but the largest asset will attain $20,000 for the 2nd time in its history.

The Arrival and Introduction of Bitcoin Institutional Investors: Part 2

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In Part 1 of this article, we discussed the factors that led to the arrival of Institutional Investors in Bitcoin. With the relative improvement of sentiment over the past three years, it is time to understand whether there is real steel to this market ingenuity for BTC.

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Data from Skew again suggested that in terms of Google trends, Bitcoin is only fractionally as popular as it was in 2017. On the other hand, CME BTC futures reached an Open-Interest of $1 billion for the first time last week. This is monumental development from an institutional point of view since CME caters to only high net worth and accredited traders.

Interest went up as attention followed Bitcoin

While the Open-Interest was a key indicator, eyes started to turn when popular investors started to throw in their hat for Bitcoin. The trend started with Paul Tudor Jones, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager, commenting,

“I came to the conclusion that #btc was going to be the best of the inflation trades-the defensive trades. Bitcoin has a lot of characteristics of being an early investor in a tech company…it’s like investing with Steve Jobs and Apple.”

Such high praise coming from a personality who has spent over 40 years in the investment sector spoke volumes for the digital asset. After Jones’ remark, other people started to opine on this matter, and recently Stanley Druckenmiller, former chairman of Duquesne Capital, stated,

“Also, unlike gold which is the third-highest reserve assets that central banks own, I can’t imagine central banks, big Institutional investors, businesses, or multinational companies using it.”

Now, many of BTC’s critics often question the Gold-comparison because of its difference in market cap. However, institutional investors were in the mix and running, because of its genuine similarity, and to a certain degree, they noticed an improved version in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin-Gold: Numbers and Time don’t lie

To understand the comparison at a root level, we need to go back 50 years into the financial landscape. In the 1970s, Gold became a favored investment hedge. This was due to large economic uncertainty at that time, and other factors included,

  • CPI Inflation was high, 7% hike per year
  • Weak US dollar
  • Oil prices jumped from $20 to $120 per barrel

In conclusion, investors did not trust holdings in cash and they moved their sights to gold. Hence, Gold turned into a popular ‘store of value’ and its price went up 24 times between 1970 and 1981.

The econometrics chart below explains Gold’s trajectory properly.

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So, if an investor had bought Gold in 1970, and held it until now, they would experience a 55 times growth, which is very impressive.

However, let’s shift our focus to Bitcoin now.

Now, in 2020 the situation was a little too similar to the 1970s.

  • There is a fear of inflation and debasement of fiat currencies
  • China vs US internal struggles were not stable, or ideal
  • Coronavirus spread is creating a major economic crisis

Now, the old school traders were looking at Gold again during this time, but BTC made a better case for itself.

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Since its first halving in 2012, BTC has risen by a whopping 1400 times in less than 10 years, and continued to rise in 2020, amidst immense financial instability. There is no doubt about which asset had more momentum, and in terms of accessibility, Bitcoin took all the brownie points.

BTC is nowhere close to Gold’s market cap most definitely, but at the speed at which it is growing, the bridge will only get smaller with time.

Ignorance is not Bliss..at least with BTC

There is no doubt that institutional investors will continue to flow capital in BTC. According to a recent Citigroup, report, there is also a possible discussion now that Bitcoin may reach $300,000 by the end of 2021. The figure is absurd because it is another 1527% hike from the present valuation, in less than 24 months.

However, the investors are here to stay and we are at the beginning of a new chapter for Bitcoin.

The Arrival and Introduction of Bitcoin Institutional Investors: Part 1

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Bitcoin’s present is reminiscent of its 2017’s action. However, it is still completely different. The dynamics around Bitcoin has massively changed. There is a sense of stability surrounding the digital asset, which was largely absent three years back.   At press time, Bitcoin is just below $19,000 under its final resistance range.

After the inevitable step above, we’d be turning a new chapter in Bitcoin’s financial history. In order to understand the present and future interests, we will divide the explanation into two parts, in order to achieve a better market lucidity.

Bitcoin in 2020: Liquidity and Derivatives

Between 2017 and 2020, there are two clear distinctions. First, the supply of Bitcoin has increased from 16.77 million in January 2018 to 18.55 million at press time. That is an influx of 1.78 million BTC, currently valued at $32.28 billion. That is higher than every crypto asset’s market cap other than Ethereum.

The liquidity brought in by such a significant supply has led to the current explosive trading volume between on-ramp platforms. According to Skew’s recent data set, Bitcoin spot trades north of $500 million against the U.S dollar on exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini, LMAX Digital, and ItBit.

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This brings us to the 2nd difference, which is self-explanatory after the above example; higher liquidity.

Another financial product associated with Bitcoin is BTC futures traded with high leverage on offshore platforms. The report added,

“It’s common to see days where they trade in total north of $10bln. CME bitcoin futures traded on average $500mln notional a day in the last three months. Most bitcoin futures contracts are cash-settled using BTCUSD and BTCUSDT spot indices.”

It is important to note that its market was completed non-existent in 2017 and developed above the existent spot market as well.

The Origin of Institutional Investors

The major inference that can be drawn from the above-mentioned rising interest is organic growth in this particular market. And here in the last few years, the institutional interest has begun to move at a rather real pace.

CME can be appreciated for its major role. Many high net-worth individuals have identified this parabolic incline in BTC futures, attracting high levels of cash and carry strategies, on its sport and futures platform.

However, this has definitely led to institutions whose capital is solely dependent on crypto assets, and they are basically “cash poor”. Since banks have been completely absent in this market, there has often been US dollar scarcity since 2017.

The next part of this article will describe the possible expectation of Institutional Investors on BTC and what possibly lies in the future. End of Part 1.

Here’s how Bitcoin Short-Term &; Long-Term HODLers are Reacting to $18K!

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Bitcoin surpassed a legitimate milestone over the past 24-hours. Other than the fact that the king coin breached above $18,000, BTC also clocked in its largest market cap valuation at $350 billion. There is palpable unrest at the moment with people speculating on BTC’s next price range. While the $20,000 valuation is within touching distance for Bitcoin, according to a recent glassnode study, the price action of BTC is inflicting a reaction from the HODLers as well.

Bitcoin Short-Term and Long-Term HODlLers are moving

According to a recent report by the Glassnode Founder, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, the current Long-Term Holder Supply for Bitcoin is at 12.3 million i.e 66% of the total circulating supply.

While it indicates an impressive number in terms of BTC hodled by long-term investors, here is the key difference taking place at the present moment.

lth supply

The amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders has declined over the last few weeks as BTC’s price continued to improve. This is completely opposite to the common narrative that is doing the rounds. Earlier reports suggested that HODLers were barely moving during the current rally and that BTC accumulation is reaching new heights.

Technically, the above statement is not wrong because accumulation is definitely taking place, but it is taking over within the Short-Term Holders.

sth supply

According to data, as Long-Term Hodlers released their BTC holdings into the exchange, Short-Term Hodlers were taking advantage of the situation. It said,

“Over the course of the past month, the amount of STH supply has increased by more than 500,000 BTC and sits currently at around 3.7 million BTC  – 20% of the circulating supply.”

Why such a change in the HODLing narrative?

In order to have more clarification on the present HODLing sentiment, it is important to look at the state of profitability for the LTH and STH supply. Data suggested that 12 million Bitcoin under Long-Term holders are at 97% profit and Short-Term holders with 3.5 million under accumulation indicated the same result, i.e 97% profitability.

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The key inference that can be drawn from such statistics is the fact that it did not matter whether accumulation was taking place from LTH or STH end. At the moment, people involved in BTC were looking to book profits and in order to do that, Long-Term Holders were cashing on their assets at the moment, and Short-Term holders were forming the next leg for the bullish rally.

At present time, the general sentiment surrounding Bitcoin was extremely positive hence it did not make a difference whether users were under the Short-Term or Long-Term holders. For Bitcoin, it was a win-win situation for both sides.

Can Bitcoin climb up to $20k under the current momentum?

Under the current market structure and bullish sentiment, anything can happen at the moment. The fact that the present rally is completely different from 2017, makes all the difference. During the last major bull run, Bitcoin did not have a massive institutional interest. At the current moment, BTC has a legitimate involvement from high-net-worth individuals and this leads to absorption of liquidity when the whales may sell-out at the top.

Here is another important example.

valleys loss

As indicated earlier, the amount of Bitcoin under profit held by both Short-Term and Long-Term Hodlers is completely nullifying the loss percentage in the charts. The supply storage has created an organic demand for the asset which is currently unmatched in the space.

With the overall sentiment bullish on all front, it allows BTC to have a greater probability of attaining $20,000 and beyond. The chances of a sudden slump is also reduced since the wealth distribution is much higher in the current timeline than in 2017.

For Bitcoin, it can be the beginning of a rally that might take the valuation to a New All-Time High.

Crypto IPO: A $4 billion IPO can meet Barry Silbert’s DCG future

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When we talk of public-tradable companies in the digital asset industry, very few organizations will come to mind. These organizations are small businesses, and none of the multi-billion dollar corporations has taken a step into the Crypto IPO.

Over the past few years, there have been talks about Coinbase and BlockFi taking the big step forward but nothing constructive has manifested from either side till now. Now, According to Messari, a third party might also soon throw their hat into the Crypto IPO mix, which happens to be Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group.

Digital Currency Group or DCG is a venture capital company that has several established crypto businesses under its administration. The organization has been around for over 5 years, and it has developed corporations such as Genesis Global Trading and Grayscale Investments. Additionally, DCG also controlled CoinDesk and Internation retail exchange, Luno, under its wing.

While discussions over a Crypto IPO have not been raised publicly for DCG’s end, the report crunched down some numbers, which indicated that DCG would present a strong case for a successful IPO.

Barry Silbert and his numbers game with Genesis, Grayscale

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According to the report, Genesis recently revealed its quarterly report for Q3 2020. Genesis Global Trading, an OTC crypto trading desk, and crypto lending/borrowing platform, registered loans which surpassed $5 billion on the quarter. The total active loans were estimated to be $2.1 billion which would bring is $42 million annual revenue at the moment.

Additionally, on the trading aside, Genesis registered over $1 billion in derivatives trading and $4.5 billion in spot volumes, where estimated trading revenue is expected to be around $8.8 million.

These are extremely impressive numbers and with respect to Grayscale, the crypto industry already had an idea. Grayscale’s flagship product, GBTC has continued to aggressively accumulate BTC in 2020, currently occupying close to 2% of total circulation. Grayscale was bringing in close to $159 million in revenue per year. The report added,

“With Genesis and Grayscale generating an estimated $50M and $123M a year, that still leaves Coindesk and Luno. On top of that, DCG also has a sizeable investment arm, consisting of both liquid and VC investments that would bring their total valuation to around $4.3 billion.”

DCG’s added advantage for its Crypto IPO

The $4.3 billion valuation of DCG is impressive. It is impressive enough to take the IPO step but Barry Silbert’s organization had an added advantage. One of the key fundamentals before going public is to attain a list of clients that come from an institutional background and high net worth individuals. A retail heavy clientele does not attract that right kind of people to undertake the proceeding of an IPO. For Genesis and Grayscale, it has been their major source of revenue. Genesis trading strictly caters to the demands of institutional investors and in 2019, it facilitated the crypto-fiat lending system due to immense institutional demand.

Grayscale’s stance in the public eye is already clear as day, with the investment wing catering to institutions trying to attain exposure to digital assets. Hence, with Digital Currency Group, a Crypto IPO can be manifested in a matter of months, if Barry Silbert decides to take the company public.

Over 500K Bitcoin outflows in 2020; BTC Hodling Re-Defined?

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2020 has been an exceptional year for Bitcoin, but there have been some drastic changes over time. Data collected from Arcane Research indicated that between 15 March and 5 November, 560,428 BTCs had exited exchanges, resulting in the largest net outflow for collective platforms.

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The aggregated BTC exchange balance has decreased by 2.4 million for the first time since August 2018. While the circulating supply in the industry has increased by 1.3 million since 2018, more and more users are currently taking their assets out of these centralized platforms. The report added,

“The exchange balance is currently at its lowest since February 4th 2018.”

Strong Price Action and Impact on Bitcoin Hodling

The first incident of high exchange outflow was witnessed back in March 2020, when BTC’s price collapsed below $4000. While the price has recovered significantly over the past few months, the net outflow has only increased. The popular inference drawn from such a drastic turnaround has been that users are currently unwilling to sell their assets. Bitcoin‘s price performance after a difficult economic period during the pandemic has re-ignited a sense of trust in the asset.

Bitcoin hodlers and the holding sentiment has only improved with the increasing valuation, and it was speculated that users were possibly moving their assets to cold storage or maybe shifting them to Ethereum.

According to Willy-Woo, the reasons for high BTC outflows went beyond the simple case of Hodling. The analyst had suggested that Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative had received a new wave of interest.

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During the economic uncertainty in mid-year, investors were moving into BTC and it led to the increased in NVT, which is Bitcoin’s network value. The investment velocity also picked up the pace and suddenly traders were accumulating even after it had crossed the $10,000 mark in May. Woo stated,

“The fundamentals of BTC became visibly bullish over the COVID correction, this was hidden by traders freaking out and being liquidated. Bitcoin is only now reflecting its organic valuation.”

Massive Institutional BTC Open-Interest paved higher HODLing sentiment

During last month’s rally, CME‘s OI registered its all-time high Open-Interest which indicated that rising involvement of institutions as well. With retail already jumping on the bandwagon, institutions were becoming more forthcoming with Bitcoin as well, and MicroStrategy’s $426 million investment is a great example.

With the sentiment surrounding BTC becoming inevitably bullish for 2021, we might see HODLing increase for the next few months. Such levels of accumulation have not been witnessed before in Bitcoin’s history and it truly marks the start of a new generation of wealth distribution with Bitcoin.

XRP spikes 4.22% after Ripple buy-in; Sentiment over Activity?

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There is now an air of unpredictability surrounding XRP. Bitcoin is currently consolidating above $15,000, and other altcoins such as Ethereum and LINK have been steadily rising higher and higher in charts. It wasn’t exactly the same for the fourth-largest asset, which was still trailing behind its 2019 highs, let alone registering a new ATH since 2017.

XRP vs Bitcoin: A weekly chart edition

Bitcoin XRP

While Bitcoin’s value has exhibited periods of significant growth over the past couple of years, XRP has hardly witnessed a massive rise. Its high of $0.45 in June 2019 is still, its recent all-time high. While it does not say much about the token other than extreme sideways consolidation, its market reacted fervently due to an extrinsic factor.

According to Ripple’s Q3 insight report, Ripple purchased over $46 million worth of XRP in Q3 2020. In comparison, Ripple had invested zero dollars in the previous quarter. The report suggested that the massive buy-in was conducted to create a ‘healthy market’, indirectly inferring that the organization wanted to create interest for the token, and improve its price. However, here is an interesting hook in the development.

XRP

While the Q3 Insights report was released on 5th November, there wasn’t any coverage of Ripple buying over $46 million in XRP in Q3. It was covered today by another medium and just an hour later, the asset exhibited a rapid spike of 4.22%. A coincidence can be painted with respect to the surge but it has happened in the past as well.

It begs the question of whether the token can sustain growth on the basis of organic adoption, just like Bitcoin and Ethereum, or does it require the external influence of Ripple to keep it afloat in the top-10 digital asset rankings.

XRP volumes exhibited a 105% increase in Q3

This is where the speculation needle takes a vital turn. While the 4th largest crypto continues to attain long-term sideways oscillation, its daily volumes continued to suggest user involvement.

ripp

The above chart indicates the processing time of a transaction on XRP with respect to Bitcoin, Ethereum was XRP continues to outperform the top two cryptos. XRP’s functionality as bridge currency continues to demonstrate higher utility and convenience and in spite of limited price growth, it allows traders to capture time-limited arbitrage opportunities by capitalizing on XRP’s speed and low transaction costs.

Such organic activity should have an impact on its valuation however, market sentiment continues to be the primary trigger. Only time will tell whether the asset will improve on its credibility or get washed-out by other rising assets.

Ethereum, Chainlink, Bitcoin Cash Technical Analysis on 27th September 2020

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As we near the end of Q3 2020, market volatility remains at its peak with major altcoins exhibiting extreme sideways movement over the past month. While the last 24-hours were rather timid, price action has been active all week, with several coins picturing positive moves on their short-term chart. We analyzed the markets of Ethereum, Chainlink, and Bitcoin Cash to attain more clarity on what the short-term future holds.

Ethereum hourly chart

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For Ethereum, the past 48-hours or so has been positive with the price slowing rising within the trendlines of an ascending channel. At press time Ethereum was valued at $351 and over the course of August and September, ETH has traded the most between $350-$360, strengthening this particular range as a bottom. With a market cap of $39 billion, Ethereum maintained its comfortable 2nd spot in the rankings, and the altcoin represented a trading volume of $9 billion over the past day.

Market Indicators remained neutral at the moment but hinting towards a reversal. Awesome Oscillator suggested that the bearish momentum is all but dismissed in the charts but Chaikin Money Flow indicated that outflows continued to dominate inflows in Ethereum’s market.

Chainlink hourly chart

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Chainlink has fallen a little from grace over the course of September, sliding down to 7th in the rankings. While the altcoin was valued over $10 at the moment, its market cap held a valuation under $4 billion, at $3.59 billion. The last day witnessed at an uptick of 3.77% which was backed by a high trading volume of $1.08 billion.

However, when you talk about chaotic market movement, Chainlink is a prime example and it is largely due to the fact that the asset has not traded in this price range before the last couple of months. At the moment, its valuation is exhibiting a symmetrical triangle, which is a clear sign of uncertainty as the price may go up or down.

The Bollinger Bands were observed to be parallel which suggested a reduction in market volatility but the Relative Strength Index or RSI suggested improving buying pressure. The asset will possibly re-test $11.5 if a bullish breakout takes place.

Bitcoin Cash hourly chart

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Lastly, Bitcoin Cash managed to reclaim a position in the top 5 cryptocurrencies. The past 24-hours were a little turbulent with the price rising by 4% at first then dropping by 2.5% around 6 hours later. The volatility was observed in the market indicators as well.

While MACD suggested a bearish trend with the signal line hovering over the blue line, Stochastic RSI suggested that BCH is going to overturn the current trend and undergo a bullish period.

With an average trading volume of $662 million, Bitcoin Cash had a market capitalization of 4.05 billion, while being valued under $220 at press time.