- Bitcoin holds above the True Market Mean while over 25% of supply sits in loss.
- ETF, spot, and futures demand weaken across major markets.
- Options market shifts to calmer pricing as volatility compresses.
Bitcoin has stabilized above the True Market Mean after two weeks of declines, but the broader structure now looks similar to Q1 2022. The Glassnode report shows that the spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile and is now trading near $96.1K.
This places more than 25% of supply underwater, raising the risk of top-buyer capitulation if macro conditions worsen. The key level to reverse this pressure sits near the 0.85 quantile around $106.2K, which would indicate a return of strength.
Loss metrics show rising tension. Total Supply in Loss hit 7.1M BTC on the 7-day average, the highest since September 2023. The current 5M–7M BTC range resembles early 2022, when the price repeatedly bounced but stayed stagnant. It reinforces the True Market Mean as the line separating a mild bearish phase from a deeper decline.
Demand Weakens Across ETFs, Spot, and Futures
Despite the above similarities, capital momentum remains a bit positive. Net Change in Realized Cap is at +$8.69B per month. This remained well below the $64.3B high in July 2025 but remained positive to keep Bitcoin above the $90K level. Even the long-term holder community remains selling at a profit. Their long-term holder SOPR remained at 1.43 but showed significantly reduced margins.
Demand in the off-chain market was lower. US Bitcoin ETF funds became negative on 3-day flows. Spot CVD decreased for the main exchanges since traders have reduced risk. Flows for Coinbase also became less. Data for futures also reflect a slow trend since open interest decreased while the funding rate was close to zero. Such reduced risks have lowered the possibilities of liquidity.
Options Market Resets Toward Neutrality
The options market adjusts to a less volatile environment. The implied volatility index reduced across all terms. IV for short-dated options decreased from 57% to 48%, medium-term IV decreased from 52% to 45%, and long-term IV decreased from 49% to 47%. Additionally, skew was reduced in the short-dated options from 18.6% to 8.4% after a rebound from the $84.5K level.
Flow data reveals a flipping of sentiment through the week. Heavy put buying early on was driven by fear, but as the price stabilized, traders went back to calls. At the $100K level, it remains a difficult zone, lower where more call premium continues to be sold than bought as participants pay up for risk protection.
Meanwhile, implied volatility has fallen below realized, implying that actual moves have been larger than anticipated. This is long-gamma theater as the market nears Dec 26th expiration and a reset into 2026.
Also Read: Bank of America Greenlights 1–4% Bitcoin Exposure Plan
