- Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin will remain less volatile than Nvidia through 2026 due to increased institutional adoption.
- Integration with traditional finance and spot ETFs is “derisking” Bitcoin, reducing steep and abrupt price swings.
- Long-term Bitcoin holders are nearing the end of selling, with 1.6M BTC reentered over the past two years.
Bitwise claims that Bitcoin’s price is entering a new cycle, in which it is less volatile than Nvidia stock in 2025, to emphasize the changes in the world of cryptocurrencies.
In a Wednesday report, Bitwise stated that the volatility of Bitcoin has reduced steadily over the past ten years and forecasted that it would remain less than the volatility of the graphics card manufacturer, Nvidia (NVDA), throughout 2026.
Bitcoin Volatility Falls Below Nvidia
According to Bitwise, the increasing integration of Bitcoin with the traditional finance sector is impacting the way it moves. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have enabled pensions, asset managers, and other large-scale organizations to invest in it.
This trend has diversified the investment base of Bitcoin from retail and crypto funds, making it less prone to steep and abrupt price swings. According to Bitwise, the phenomenon is a gradual process of “derisking” due to increased liquidity.
The performance of Bitcoin and Nvidia is starkly revealed in the data this year. Bitcoin ranged from a 2025 low of about $75,000 in April to an all-time high of about $126,000 in early October, a movement of about 68%. Nvidia, on the other hand, swung from a price of about $94 in early April to a high of about $207 in a much larger movement of about 120%.
Nvidia is doing better; its stock is up around 27% year to date, with Bitcoin down around 8% since the year-start. Bitwise observes that crypto markets are increasingly becoming orthogonal to equities in 2025.
Bitwise Predicts New Bitcoin High
Bitwise believes that the calm price action is not transient, given that the effect of leverage and halving has started to wane. Looking into the future, Bitwise is still positive regarding Bitcoin, predicting a new record high and a departure from the traditional four-year cycle.
The company also expects the involvement of additional large banks in 2026, which include the names of Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch.
Bitcoin Long-Term Selling Nears End
A separate report from K33 indicates long-term Bitcoin holders could be approaching the tail end of their sales. Bitcoin has been under consistent sell pressure since the beginning of 2024 as the initial buyers cashed in their gains. Approximately 1.6 million Bitcoins valued at about $138 billion reentered the system over the last two years, according to K33.
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, highlights that there is deliberate selling going on, and this is not just due to technical activity like portfolio reshuffling in wallets or ETF switches.
According to the report, the years 2024 and 2025 are among the largest on record for supply returning to the market. It is important to note that this supply is entering institutional layers of the market rather than speculation.
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