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Larger Bitcoin Wallets Are Shuffling Supply

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One of the most promising trends that Bitcoin has witnessed was its corporate balance sheet acquisition, with MicroStrategy at the tip of the spear. But the latest market movement proved to be the biggest and the most damaging correction that Bitcoin sustained in its lifetime.

The crypto-asset lost $200 Billion in just 24-hours following panic among the retail traders.

Bitcoin Accumulation Wallets Hit Reversal

Leading up to this event was the peculiar activity from the large wallet holders who were found to have been shuffling supply. As noted by the blockchain intelligence firm, Glassnode, wallets with 1k to 10k Bitcoin holdings appeared to be ‘reducing holdings’.

This is in a clear reversal in the accumulation trend by these high-profile wallets which had been in accumulation throughout 2020. But this class of BTC holders saw a perfect inverse in 2021.

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According to the weekly report by Glassnode, Whales saw a supply increase in January of around +80k BTC and a subsequent decrease in the supply of -140k BTC in February.

It is important to note how the supply changes for the 100 to 1k BTC class [purple] and1k to 10k BTC,[(green] is mirrored in volume and shape.

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Upon closer inspection, it was found that when one class saw an increasing volume, the other saw a decreasing volume and vice-versa. Hence, large vertical changes in charts like this often represent that a few large entities [example: exchanges, whales, or miners] making internal transactions.

The latest wallet behaviour could, in fact, signify that a sizeable portion of these coins may not be sold, but instead being restructured in custodial wallets. Along the same line, Glassnode noted,

“There was a preference for 1k to 10k wallets in January that are now transitioning into larger sets of UTXOs with smaller denominations between 100 and 1k. Perhaps coins are being placed into multi-signature schemes or custodians are undertaking internal shuffling to meet client requirements.”

Furthermore, the balance held by accumulation addresses continued to remain in a steadily upward direction which suggested long-term ‘HODLer heuristics’. The fact that these wallets saw no spends further validated the above argument.

That being said, while it is no secret that these Bitcoins are on the move and larger balances are being reclassified, it, however, does not necessarily demonstrate an end to, as Glassnode said, “whale spawning season”.

Did Bitcoin’s Current Bearish Rally Began During “Positive Q2 2020”?

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The second quarter of 2020 has been extremely tumultuous. Bitcoin  and the rest of the crypto market initially put their right foot on the gas and the market exploded. According to data provided by Binance Research, BTC USD was up by 42% in Q2 2020, making it one of the best quarters in recent coin history.

 

bitcoin 2020

Other altcoins were also able to take advantage of the rally, with the likes of Ethereum, Bitcoin , and Litecoin sustaining significant gains. Correlations between the various crypto assets had also remained high in the charts, but slightly lower compared to Q1. The 90-day rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and the BTC was positive. But its influence decreased dramatically after mid-June.

Despite major positive moves by BTC USD, Binance’s report noted that it was crucial to note that almost all of BTC USD’s gains came in the first 45 days of the quarter. Referring to it as a “Kangaroo market,” the market environment was divided between the period when prices were going up and the period when prices were falling.

Now, although many supporters have liked to believe that current market stagnation and decline is due to recent market inactivity, the above data may suggest that Q2 2020 was not entirely positive.

Did Bitcoin ‘s current bearish picture start after mid-May?

Let us have some of the facts right. BTC USD’s last high occurred at the end of May when Bitcoin reached $10,250. From here on, the asset’s inability to breach $10,000 was rightly questioned, but the reason is that Bitcoin cash was halved on 11 May. Casual viewers hoped for a bullish rally right after the halving, but it has historically been identified that the BTC usually follows a prolonged correction for the first 6 months after the halving.

It is therefore not inaccurate to state that Bitcoin’s 42 percent positive return in Q2 2020 was down to the hype of the pre-halving. After the halving has been completed, Bitcoin cash is now following its historic past, and the underlying bearish trail is something that was triggered in the midst of Bitcoin’s bullish Q2 period.

Ethereum performed better in Q2 than BTC USD

The report further added that amidst Bitcoin’s stronghold, Ethereum consistently out-marched BTC with a quarterly return of approximately 70 percent in the charts. Major factors behind ETH’s rally has been down to the growth of DeFi and the anticipation surrounding Ethereum 2.0.

Now, with the commencement of Q3 2020, it will be interesting to see the development of the crypto market over the next three months; whether the bearish grip is broken towards the end of the year or not.

Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Price Analysis: Price booms as 2020 continues to shower its fortunes

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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Price Analysis: Price booms as 2020 continues to shower its fortunes

 

Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Price Analysis: Bitcoin‘s performance in 2020 has been the talk of the cryptocurrency town and many naysayers have now begun to backtrack on their comments about the digital asset’s fall.

The second week of 2020 has been quite fruitful for Bitcoin as its price hit its highest point since November of 2019. This event has been quite clamorous for the space as multiple proponents came forward to praise the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

At press time, Bitcoin’s price was $8293.33 with a total market cap of $150.51 billion. The market cap too has risen to one of its biggest markers since last October, another win for the currency. It is easy to say that the price rise has been random but a technical analysis will give us a deeper look.

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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Price Analysis:
1-hour Chart
The hourly chart for Bitcoin’s price showed multiple green candles shooting for the sky. The immediate price support for Bitcoin was lifted to $7762 after a continuous price hike for 6 days.

The Parabolic SAR was strongly below the price candles. This indicated that Bitcoin’s price would continue to stay in the bullish territory.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator was another friend to Bitcoin’s price. The CMF was way above the zero line which meant that the capital coming into the Bitcoin market was much more than the capital leaving the market.

The Awesome Oscillator was showing burgeoning green signal after the recent bullish run. The bump in the AO meant that the Bitcoin market pressure was at a long term high.

The short term indicators all showed bullish signs, which may indicate a strong bull run for the next couple of days including a mix of price flatlines.

1 day:

Bitcoin Price Analysis:
1 Day Chart

 

Bitcoin’s daily price chart had begun to reflect the currency’s performance in the short term. The green candles had begun to take over with the last 6 markers staying green throughout. The immediate support on the daily chart was at $6626.3.

The CMF had spiked to the upper strata strongly for the first time since the middle of October 2019. The climb meant that investors were regaining their faith in Bitcoin.

The Awesome Oscillator signalled green for the first time in 2020. Together with the CMF, we can speculate that institutional investors were increasing their ramp up towards the Bitcoin industry,

The Parabolic SAR for Bitcoin’s long term price also remained bullish, a positive sign for traders. The markers remained below the price candles and assured holders that the atmosphere was bullish.

Bitcoin’s price prediction has always been tricky with analysis, with multiple factors affecting its movement. The above-mentioned Bitcoin price charts and indicators have all in tandem stated that Bitcoin’s strong start to the year will bring its dividends soon.