In suspense-filled anticipation of today’s unveiling of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is perched on its collective seat. As traditional markets and central banks maintain a watchful eye on inflation metrics, the potential repercussions for the digital asset realm loom.
The financial realm is bracing itself for the latest insights from the July CPI data, with prevailing expectations indicating a potential 0.2% surge in the headline and core indices compared to their June counterparts. Should this forecast materialize, the 12-month core CPI would readjust to 4.7%, exhibiting a slight dip from the previous 4.8% recorded in June. Meanwhile, the headline index’s (YoY) projection suggests a climb to 3.3%, marking an upward shift from the earlier figure of 3.0% and showcasing a potential alteration in inflation trends.
Analysts expect a notable revival of inflation in the upcoming months. The forecasts from the Cleveland Fed indicate a gradual increase in YoY headline CPI inflation. Commencing at 3.0% in June 2023, this value is predicted to climb to 3.4% in July and maintain its upward course, reaching 4.1% by August. The precision of the Cleveland Fed’s projections holds considerable significance for numerous investors.
Reinforcing the concept of a resurging US CPI, JP Morgan’s analysis predicts significant YoY CPI rates for July, August, and September. The bank’s projections indicate figures of 3.33%, 3.46%, and 3.32%, respectively, during these months.
Unveiling an intriguing viewpoint of Fundstrat, the comprehensive analysis brings forth an exciting angle. Anticipating a favorable market outcome, the data science team expects Core CPI to increase by +0.15% or more (MoM), notably below the consensus estimate of +0.22%. The report argues that the Cleveland Fed’s simpler model overlooks crucial disinflationary triggers.
CPI Anchored In Disinflationary Factors
The analysis underscores the significant contributions of used cars and housing to inflation. The report highlights the overlooked fact that used cars and housing play outsized roles in driving inflation. Falling used car prices and a cooling housing market have exerted disinflationary pressures, tempering the overall inflation rate.
If the CPI data aligns with Fundstrat’s predictions, it could trigger a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, might weaken the US dollar, potentially providing a boost to the fortunes of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Market analysts are acutely aware of liquidity’s role in the market, particularly during significant data releases like the CPI figures. “Material Indicators,” a prominent analyst, highlights the potential for rapid price fluctuations in the crypto market, pointing out critical support and resistance levels at $29,000 and $30,000, respectively.
In the words of Thomas Lee, the impending release promises to be “revelatory.” Whether this revelation ultimately favors the Bitcoin and crypto bulls or tips, the balance toward the bears remains uncertain. Market indicators peg an 85% likelihood of no rate hike during the upcoming September meeting, as per the FedWatch tool. All eyes are on today’s CPI report to discern if it holds the potential to alter this scenario.
Related Reading:| What Happens Next for Bitcoin After CPI Rates Lower Than Expected?