In a keynote speech on September 5th at Korea Blockchain Week, BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes boldly asserted that the Bitcoin bull market officially commenced on March 10th. This particular date holds significance as it coincides with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) takeover of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
Hayes, renowned for his sharp insights into cryptocurrency markets, predicts that the broader market will react to this development within the coming six to twelve months.
To contextualize Hayes’ declaration, it’s essential to trace back to the events unfolding around March 10th. Just two days prior, on March 8th, Silvergate Bank had declared insolvency. Shortly after that, on March 12th, New York regulators mandated the closure of Signature Bank.
In response to these cascading financial woes, the Federal Reserve swiftly introduced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). This initiative offered banks loans with a maturity of up to a year, contingent upon them posting “qualifying assets” as collateral.
In Hayes’ words, the Federal Reserve essentially “backstopped the entire banking system” by encouraging banks to exchange their troubled bonds for fresh dollars. He argued that this move was, in essence, an acknowledgment of the structural issues within the banking system and a tacit admission that printing more money was a potential remedy.
Bitcoin’s Resilience & 26% Surge
Since these pivotal events, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth, currently boasting an impressive 26% price increase. Hayes believes this upward trajectory signifies the true beginning of the Bitcoin bull market.
He pointed out that the cryptocurrency industry saw through the façade of caring about the value of fiat currencies, thereby prompting a shift towards assets with fixed supplies, such as Bitcoin.
Despite Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, Hayes acknowledges that the broader market has yet to react to these events fully. However, he remains confident in his timeline, anticipating that the market will respond within six to twelve months.
Notably, Hayes expressed that even in the face of interest rate hikes or further monetary easing by central banks, Bitcoin is well-positioned to continue its strong performance.
Nevertheless, Hayes’ insights into the Bitcoin bull market serve as a thought-provoking analysis of the events that triggered its initiation. While the broader market has yet to catch on fully, Hayes’ predictions bear watching as we anticipate how the cryptocurrency landscape will unfold in the coming months.
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