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Bitcoin Bull Run Continues: Soars to New Heights Not Seen Since August 2022

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The crypto market has been sent skyrocketing once again as Bitcoin (BTC) reaches new heights not seen since August 2022. According to leading crypto analyst site Santiment, the world’s most popular digital currency has now soared past the $22,700 mark, marking the first time it has reached this level since August 18, 2022.

According to CoinMarketcap’s latest data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $22,976.12, indicating a strong bullish sentiment and a potential break past the $23,000 level. The daily and weekly charts are also showing impressive gains of 9.00% and 10.13%, respectively. Furthermore, trading volume for BTC has seen a significant increase of 75% in the past 24 hours, further demonstrating the market’s upward momentum.

BTCUSDT 2023 01 21 05 45 49
Source: Tradingview

But what is driving this impressive surge in Bitcoin’s price? Experts point to the actions of a powerful group of investors known as “whales,” who have been collectively accumulating a massive 64,638 BTC (worth over $1.46 billion) in the past 15 days. This influx of investment from the whale tier group of addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has sent ripples through the crypto market, propelling Bitcoin to new heights.

This latest rally in the crypto market is sure to be welcomed by investors and traders, who have been eagerly watching Bitcoin’s progress in recent months. It remains to be seen just how high the digital currency can go, but one thing is for certain: the crypto market is showing no signs of slowing down.

As the world’s leading digital currency continues to make waves in the financial world, many experts are predicting that this is just the beginning of an even more significant rally. With Bitcoin reaching new highs and showing no signs of slowing down, it’s clear that the crypto market is a force to be reckoned with.

4.283M Bitcoin (BTC) Returns to Unrealized Profit

In a recent development, data analytics firm Glassnode has reported that a significant volume of Bitcoin has returned to an Unrealized Profit position since the market lows set during the FTX collapse.

According to Glassnode, a total of 4.283 million BTC, valued between $15.5k and $22.3k, have transacted and changed hands during this period. This provides a clear indication of the level of activity and movement in the market.

This news is particularly noteworthy as it suggests that the crypto market may be recovering from the recent turbulence caused by the FTX collapse. The return of such a large volume of Bitcoin to an Unrealized Profit position indicates that investors are once again becoming optimistic about the future of the market.

It’s worth noting that this is a positive sign for the crypto market, and it could be a sign of a bullish trend in the near future. However, it’s also important to keep in mind that the market is always subject to fluctuations, and investors should exercise caution and do their own research before making any decisions.

Related Reading | Aptos (APT) Rose 57% in 24 Hours As Binance Announces New liquidity Pools 

Bitcoin Heading Towards “Bottom” Similiar To 2019’s Bull Run?

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In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of about $69k, but since then, both the coin and the wider crypto market have lost those gains.

Despite the ongoing bearish sentiments, historical data indicated that Bitcoin could be in for another rally in 2023. 

According to commodity strategist Mike McGlone, the dominant coin might be approaching a Bottom with chances of repeating the patterns of 2019’s bull run.

In a video podcast hosted by popular crypto enthusiast Scott Melker, McGlone said that the biggest rallies often occur in the bear market.

The analyst compared BTC’s recent rally into the $20,000 range to its bottom formation in 2018 at the $5,000 price level.

However, the current situation, apart from in 2018, has seen “aggressive” tightening by “every central bank” and financial organization including the Federal Reserve, he claimed.

“Back then the Fed already started easing and we held the bottom and broke out higher and then we had that issue in 2019,” he said.

The NASDAQ is likely to fall below its 200-week moving average, which, according to McGlone, is another reason why Bitcoin’s rally might not last. The performance of Bitcoin over the past year has been closely correlated with that of the NASDAQ.

This is the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is at its 200-week moving average. The 200-week moving average in the history of the NASDAQ can be calculated we only broke through that level three times. And every single time the Fed was easing. The last good example was 2008. Fed was easing aggressively.

“Right now they’re tightening aggressively, so you look at that and you can’t be too excited about any markets. Give it some time. Big picture, yes, really bullish Bitcoin,” McGlone added.

It is important to note that recent Glassnode data lends further credence to the notion that the price of Bitcoin has already formed a bottom in the current cycle.

Bitcoin Has Already Reached Its Bottom For This Cycle

The report showed that during the 2018–2019 bear cycle, Bitcoin fell 386 days below its 200-day moving average before making a comeback.

Similar to how it spent 381 days in the last cycle below the well-known market trend indicator, the asset has now broken above it, suggesting a turnaround.

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $21,155. On the daily chart, the flagship cryptocurrency has corrected by 0.90%. 

Bitcoin USD Value Drops: Daily Transfer Volume Collapses from $40B to $5.8B

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According to WU Blockchain, the total value of USD transactions processed by the Bitcoin network has significantly decreased. Daily volume has declined from its peak of $40 billion in Q3 2022 to $5.8 billion currently. Additionally, the percentage of large-size transfers has dropped from 42.8% before the FTX collapse to 19.0% at present.

After entering the new year, the digital asset market witnessed a peculiar trend – Bitcoin’s trading range between $16.4k and $16.9k hardly fluctuated for three weeks straight. As expected, this New Year period was unsurprisingly tranquil throughout all markets, including the digital asset sphere.

image 36
Source: Glassnode

Yesterday, after three weeks of stagnation, Bitcoin broke through the $17,000 barrier and made significant gains of 2% in the daily chart and 4% in the weekly chart. According to CoinMarketcap’s data, the cryptocurrency is currently trading at $17,225.06, with a 3.21% increase in the weekly chart but no change in the daily chart.

BTC 7D graph coinmarketcap 2
Source: Glassnode

Despite the incredibly low on-chain utilization, Bitcoin is not the only blockchain that has been affected. Ethereum’s mean gas price has stayed within a range of 16 to 23 Gwei since September, levels similar to what was observed during June-July 2021 and the post-COVID market panic in May 2020.

Bitcoin Network Has Been In Free-Fall

Glassnode reports that there was a temporary increase in the number of new Bitcoin addresses after the FTX incident, but activity has since slowed. The monthly average of new addresses is returning to its usual level, suggesting that network usage has been recovering sustainably.

image 37
Source: Glassnode

The 2019–20 timeframe is an important historical illustration of how on-chain activity indicators may be used to track a recovery in network fundamentals.

According to the report:

Despite this short burst of address activity, the total USD value processed by the Bitcoin network has been in free fall. Daily transfer volume has collapsed from the ~$40B heights in Q3-2022 to just $5.8B/day today. 

This indicates that the daily settlement volumes have returned to their pre-bull 2020 levels and suggests that there has been a decrease in the amount of institutional capital flowing through the network.

A decline in transfer volume is largely due to a decrease in large transactions ($10M+). It may indicate a decrease in institutional capital flows and a lack of confidence in this group. It is possible that this also reflects the removal of questionable capital flows associated with FTX/Alameda.

Related Reading | XRP Investors’ Long Awaited Flare Token Airdrop Has Arrived

BTC.com Losses Over $2.7 Million in A CyberAttack

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BTC.com, a subsidiary of BIT Mining Limited, a leading technology-driven crypto mining company, became the victim of a hack earlier this month, according to the press release published on December 26th.

BTC.com is the world’s top blockchain browser. BIT Mining also owns the complete mining pool company that operates under BTC.com and offers multi-currency mining services, which include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin (LTC).

According to the press release, several digital assets were taken during the incident, including those worth around $700,000 that belonged to BTC.com’s clients and roughly $2.3 million that belonged to the company.

Shenzhen, China’s law enforcement agencies, were notified of this event by BIT Mining Limited. However, the company ensures that some of BTC.com’s digital assets have already been secured due to local and internal collaboration.

Additionally, to get back the digital assets that were taken, the company will put in a lot of effort that will necessary. The investigation was started, evidence was gathered, and the authorities sought assistance from and coordinated with the appropriate agencies on December 23rd.

“In the wake of discovering this cyberattack, the company has implemented technology to better block and intercept hackers.” Nevertheless, the company claims that BTC.com is now conducting business as normal and that all of its client fund services are unaffected except for its services related to digital assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) Outflows Hit Lowest Levels 

The outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges has fallen to its lowest point in over 8 months. The token’s withdrawals from exchange wallets have completely reversed the rise, which experienced an astounding increase due to the FTX breakdown.

Outflows from the trading platforms peaked at 142,788 BTC on November 14th and have since decreased more than ten times. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, total exchange outflows were only 967.509 BTC on December 26th. Furthermore, eight months ago, in April of this year, was the last time outflows were this low (about 978.059).

Moreover, the data also shows that today’s 4,520.946 Bitcoin sent to exchange addresses marked a 1-month low. On November 30th, the previous low for the month was 4,553.976.

Additionally, the data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin is currently trading at $16,854.54, and its 24 hours trading volume is up by 35.64%.

Related Reading | Weekly Market Watch: Bitcoin & ETH Remain Below Key Marks, Some Altcoins Recovers

Bitcoin’s Accumulation By Retail Investors Peaked By 17% In 2022

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Bitcoin’s total circulating supply in the hands of retail investors shot up to 17%, the highest in a year, according to the blockchain data analytics platform, Glassnode.

According to Glassnode “retail” indicate holders with less than 10 BTC in a wallet, currently worth nearly $169,000.

This number was not even 12% at the beginning of 2020, but things changed in 2022. Prior to it, each late bull market/early bear market era for Bitcoin experienced periods of substantial retail accumulation including late 2013, early 2014, as well as late 2017.

Financial analyst Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research spoke on the data saying that the asset is heading in the right direction.

Not perfect yet, but solid for a 12-year-old asset and definitely trending in the right direction. Bitcoin’s supply disperses over time, while fiat’s holder base concentrates to whales over time.

The Glassnode chart illustrated by Clemente showed the percentage of Bitcoin supply held by retail investors on a steady climb dating back to 2011.

image 47
Bitcoin's Accumulation By Retail Investors Peaked By 17% In 2022 6

On the other hand, BTC’s long-term holder supply had reached an all-time high of 13.9 million according to a recent weekly on-chain report. With regards to realized losses this year, it stated:

“Despite these spectacularly large losses, the age of the coin supply, and propensity for HODLing by those who remain continue to rise.”

Investors Bought Bitcoin Mostly In The Range Of $18k & $24k

The amount of long-term Bitcoin holdings is equivalent to around 72.3% of the circulating supply.

Despite FTX crashing in early November, the accumulation that began in late July kept on going. Glassnode observed that coin re-distribution and re-accumulation periods had grown following each market leg down in 2022.

A lot of BTC was acquired between $18,000 and $24,000, and this supply is now aging into a long-term bracket which is over six months held.  

That being said, Bitcoin holders continue to remove their holdings from exchanges—and not necessarily to sell them. The quantity of Bitcoin held outside of exchanges is at an all-time high, indicating long-term confidence in the asset.

While the massive Bitcoin migration from Binance has calmed down, it is still happening. On December 13, more than $5 billion departed Binance as investors began to worry about its capacity to survive a run.

Ethereum Price Stuck Below $1,300 As Bears Keep Pushing It Down

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Ethereum (ETH) price has been struggling over the start of the new month to break through a major $1,300 resistance level. Bulls are still facing some challenges, though, as bears continue to drive the market down, preventing additional price increases for ETH.

According to the data from CoinMarketcap, Ethereum (ETH), the second largest coin, was last seen at this key level on November 30th, approximately 20 days after. ETH is currently trading at $1,262.88, with a gain of about 4.54% in the past seven days.

ETHUSD 2022 12 05 23 36 17
Source: Tradingview

Bullish activity, however, was seen above both the $1,250 mark and the 100 hourly simple moving average. As of December 1st, the resistance levels of $1,275 and $1,290 were broken by ETH. It passed through the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the swing high of $1,296 on December 1st to $1,258.40 on December 6th.

The next significant support is near the $1,250 mark, and the price may test the $1,240 support if it breaks below it. Moreover, any more losses may push the value closer to the $1,200 support. 

Ethereum is expected to cost $1,273 at the end of December 2022, with a year-over-year change of 66%. Additionally, the cost will increase by 33% to $1,288 in the first half of 2023 and $1,674 by the end of the year.

Impact Of The FTX debacle On Ethereum

Following the FTX debacle, the crypto market has recently been filled with FUD. The decision of whether to acquire or sell shares when assets fall further is left up to cryptocurrency investors. Like, estimates indicate that Ethereum dropped around 22.6% in a few weeks.

According to the analytics company Glassnode, the volume of NFT transactions on Ethereum has significantly decreased from 22% to 8.3%. At the same time, stablecoin dominance has increased from 10% to 12.5% since the FTX controversy started.

Nevertheless, in a blog post on December 5th, co-founder of Ethereum (ETH) Vitalik Buterin listed the top developments in the Ethereum ecosystem that he was enthusiastic about: blockchain identities, decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), hybrid applications and money.

Vitalik Buterin stated in the blog post:

Hence my change in perspective: my excitement about Ethereum is now no longer based in the potential for undiscovered unknowns, but rather in a few specific categories of applications that are proving themselves already, and are only getting stronger. 

Many people have been made aware of the value of really decentralized methods of retaining funds as a result of the FTX crash, and now that account abstraction wallets and the ERC-4337 protocol are becoming more popular, they have the chance to develop such methods. 

Additionally, transactions are added to the chain considerably more quickly now than they were 3 years ago due to roll-up technology, which is developing swiftly to address scalability.

Related Reading | Cardano Founder Reveals Why ADA Not Yet Listed On Gemini

Ethereum Registers 84% Drop In Issuance But Still Inflationary?

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Ethereum’s total coin issuance since switching to PoS has reached +2,317 ETH recently, Glassnode noted. This was over 84% decrement since the peak of 14.7k on Oct.

The massive drop in issuance is due to the burning mechanism whose main aim is to keep the asset on a deflationary path.

But, according to Glassnode, a total of 131,454 ETH has been issued to PoS validators, whilst 129,137 ETH has been burned via the EIP1559.

So, despite the overall drop in net issuance, the above figures suggest that the second biggest cryptocurrency might be moving towards an inflationary path.

image 25
Ethereum Registers 84% Drop In Issuance But Still Inflationary? 9

For those who are unaware, issuing ETH entails producing new units of the cryptocurrency. Existing ETH is destroyed through burning, taking it out of circulation.

The rate of issuance and burning gets calculated on several parameters, and the balance between them determines the resulting inflation/deflation rate of ether.

Why is there a rise in issuance? Several factors comes into play with regards to the burning mechanism such as Ethereum network’s overall activity, transactions volume, and interactions with smart contracts Any anomalies between these variables can create a low volume and low number of burning activities.

This does not imply that the EIP1559 is a failure, either, as about 130,000 ETH have been taken out of circulation since Ethereum’s PoW algorithm was replaced.

In another study by Glassnode, ETH became the most deflationary amid the FTX collapse, reaching a deflationary percentage of -0.00090%, as of Nov 29. ETH has lost almost all deflationary gains.

Ethereum’s Deflationary Gains Erased

This reduction in deflationary gains equates to more than 80% retracement toward inflationary ETH percentages.

Additionally, the total amount of ETH burned using the EIP1559 BASEFREE burn mechanism has never been lower [ATL]. Not all is lost though.

The report highlighted ETH addresses with balances equal to or greater than 32 ETH are at an all-time high, despite the decline in deflationary gains and the current ATL burn volume.

That being said, the Shanghai upgrade, which will be the next important update after the merging and the transfer to proof-of-stake consensus, was announced by the Ethereum Foundation as having eight Ethereum Improvement Proposals [EIP] that would be looked into, TronWeekly reported the other day.

Bitcoin (BTC) Rises Toward $17,000, Two Weeks High Today

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Despite investors’ concerns over the recent FTX mess, Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to rise, fueled by an optimistic mood this morning. When it crossed a triple top resistance level, BTC extended its previous winning streak and climbed as high as $16,980 during the day, barely shy of the $17,000 threshold.

According to the data from Coinmarketcap, Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency in the world, last reached this level on November 16—nearly two weeks prior. However, it is currently trading at $16,840.11.

BTCUSD 2022 11 30 08 55 16
source: Tradingview

The token is displaying a gain of almost 3% in the last 24 hours, as well as a 2.28% rise in the previous seven days. In the past 24 hours, the token’s market cap has grown by 2.53% while its trading volume has fallen by 3.26%.

Its sudden surge might be linked to the prevailing bullish attitude in the cryptocurrency market, which frequently supports Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Per Coinmarketcap, the global crypto market cap has risen by 2.02% on a daily basis. 

Whereas Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has seen significant growth of about 5% and 9.08%, respectively, in the daily and weekly charts. Additionally, its market cap is also up by 4.79% in the previous 24 hours. ETH is currently trading at $1,270.89.

 The Four-Largest Sell-Off Of Bitcoin (BTC)

Glassnode addressed the effects of the FTX fiasco on Bitcoin investors in the most recent edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released on November 28th. According to the data, the fourth-largest sell-off of BTC ever occurred in November 2022.

As per the release, the most significant sell-offs for BTC were the 50% sell-off in 2018, the COVID crash in 2020, the LUNA collapse in May 2022, and the price’s initial decline below $20k in June 2022.

However, according to Glassnode’s statement:

November has seen the fourth largest capitulation event on record, recording a 7-day realized loss of -$10.16B. This is 4.0x larger than the peak in Dec 2018, and 2.2x larger than March 2020.

7 Day Sum
Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, the entities holding less than 1 BTC (Shrimp) across all cohorts have seen two separate ATH waves of balanced growth over the past five months. 

Since the demise of FTX, shrimps have added more than 96.2k BTC to their holdings. They currently have approximately 1.21M BTC, which is a significant 6.3% of the total supply in circulation.

Shrimp
Source: Glassnode

Additionally, for comparison purposes across cycles, there is a 7-day Cumulative Net Realized Profit/Loss. Surprisingly, the market had a net loss of -521k BTC during the last week, which is again very near to the greatest loss ever recorded in history.

Comparing the current Cumulative Net Realized Loss to the COVID and LUNA Crash, with 44% and 39% price decline respectively, the market has shown a larger degree of strength during the recent capitulation with only 26% correction.

Net loss
source: Glassnode

Related reading | Phantom Crypto Wallet Extends Support to Ethereum & Polygon Blockchains

Bitcoin (BTC) Shrimps & Crabs Balances On Rise Despite FTX Demise

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Data provided by Glassnode via Twitter thread shows that after the demise of the FTX exchange, 96,200 (96.2k ) coins have been added to Bitcoin “shrimps,” a cohort of holders that hold less than 1 BTC.  

This balance increase marks “an all-time high.” According to the statement, this cohort now has more than 1.21 million Bitcoin or 6.3% of the total supply. 

While Bitcoin Crabs (up to 10 $BTC holders) has also seen an aggressive growth rate of 191,600 (191.6k) Bitcoin over the last 30 days. It is a very convincing new high for them, and it eclipses their previous peak, which was 126k $BTC per month back in July 2022.

FinVgOaacAAtUJo
Source: Glassnode

On the other hand, Whales, the primary cohort with 1000 BTC, are selling off their Bitcoin holdings. The analytics firm said:

Whales have released approximately -6.5k $BTC to exchanges on net over the last month. Whilst this is distribution, it remains very small relative to their total holdings of 6.3M $BTC.

FinWOQ0acAE TP
Source: Glassnode

In light of this, the analytics firm asserts that it can be seen that the average investor is still bullish and is only awaiting the rebuttal. Of course, before they even consider entering Bullrun, most of them will have to deal with another significant decline. The firm further said, “next 2 months are going to be very much fun.”

Bitcoin Price Analysis

BTC is currently trading at $16,221.37, according to statistics from Coinmarketcap, with a loss of roughly 2.00% over the last 24 hours and a gain of 1.05% over the previous seven days. The amount of trade within a day increased by more than 28.76%.

BTCUSD 2022 11 28 04 19 16
Source: Tradingview.com

Price movements for BTC have been unpredictable in recent days. Investors are unsure of what’s going to happen next and are uncertain about when it’ll start rising again. 

Despite the recent rally seen in cryptocurrency markets over the past week, BTC’s price fluctuates between $15,500 and $16,500. Along with this new rally come many other uncertainties, such as how long it will last. This uncertainty has had negative impacts on the prices of some altcoins that are struggling to stay afloat due to this volatility.

Furthermore, Santiment claimed in a tweet on November 26th that Bitcoin holders were moving their currency from exchanges to cold storage, and only 6.95% of Bitcoin was accessible through exchanges.

Additionally, the amount of Bitcoins that are now listed on exchanges has reached its lowest point in four years. The current trend of removing BTC from exchanges started in 2020 but has lately picked up speed because of the FTX debacle.

Related Reading | Solana NFT Ecosystem Shines But DeFi Remains Muted: Report

Is Ethereum Poised For A Price Upswing As Whales & Sharks Scoop Up ETH?

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Ethereum whales and sharks have increased their ETH holdings, scooping almost 2% of the current supply in a span of three weeks. According to data analytics firm Santiment, this cohort of investors’ activities is not ordinary.

Two years back, the same addresses accumulated 2.1% of available supply in five weeks and triggered a price upswing of Ethereum by over 50%.

Active shark & whale addresses continue accumulating with prices less than a quarter of their All-Time High levels a year ago. In Oct/Nov 2020, these 100 to 100k ETH addresses assisted in pushing $ETH to a +50% price rise over 5 weeks.

image 20
Is Ethereum Poised For A Price Upswing As Whales & Sharks Scoop Up ETH? 18

If history repeats again, we might see a potential rebound from the current state of doldrums Ethereum is at, Santiment observed. Normally, price spikes on the upside are preceded by an accumulation tendency, but this has not been the case for ETH.

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently languishing less than a quarter of its previous peak levels a year ago.

Another leading data intelligence platform Glassnode noted that Ethereum balances on exchanges also hit a four-year low on 18 Nov.

As the crypto market continues to decline, the collapse of the crypto lender FTX occurred after the trading platform secretly invested user funds and failed to honor withdrawals during a bank run.

This has exacerbated the situation, pushing the whales’ and sharks’ wallets to continue accumulating the crypto asset.

For instance, the largest whales among them have added over $1 billion worth of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization in a single day.

Ethereum Could Witness A Price Rebound; Here’s Why

Additionally, this could be a sign of a wave of centralized exchanges losing trust after the FTX meltdown last week. Investors are increasingly choosing to keep their funds off the exchanges in this regard.

In a previous analysis, Santiment claimed that even though the cryptocurrency market’s overall sentiment is gloomy, things might possibly improve for the world of digital assets.

“The crowd FUD [fear, uncertainty, doubt] is real as markets wrap up the work week. Conversations relating to current market conditions on Twitter, Reddit, Discord, and Telegram indicate a major bearish bias. This historically increases the probability of future price rises.”

At the time of writing this post, ETH is exchanging hands at $1202 and is up 3.33% in the last 24 hours.