- At 16.7% today, the 30-Day Capital Rotation for Bitcoin shows a consistent migration of new capital.
- Contrary to the 53% rise of 2021 that was driven by retail frenzy, today’s lower rotation means market positioning is stable and more comprehensive.
- This balanced flow of capital implies greater investor confidence and is a proper lead-up for sustainable long term growth in Bitcoin.
A recently created X post from Axel Adler Jr. explains some important shifts in dynamics and trajectory towards a new wave of capital in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem. The 30-Day Capital Rotation, which is a primary metric that reflects the share of realized capital from “new” coins (less than one month old), according to Adler, is currently at 16.7%.
This indicates a consistent, healthy inflow of fresh capital into Bitcoin without the wild volatility usually caused by speculative euphoria. The metric essentially shows the proportion of the trading volume driven by new players versus old players returning to the market.
In the past, higher values of this metric, especially 35% or so, have been related to particularly aggressive hype periods and fast price spikes.
Bitcoin’s Take-off Driven by Retail Speculation
The post by Axel Adler Jr. includes a lengthy chart entitled “Bitcoin Capital Rotation New vs Old,” which plots Bitcoin’s price action relative to capital rotation over the last few years.
Source: X @AxelAdler Jr
The chart highlights three key moments: a 53% increase in January 2021 when BTC was in a speculative frenzy; two more moderate peaks around 35%, with short-term rally episodes; and a current level of 16.7%, which was noted in May 2025.
The 53% figure for January 2021, as Adler notes, was the peak of the “speculator euphoria.” At that time, BTC’s price surged with a flood of retail investors and institutional interest.
The after-effect of the surge was a significant correction.
Current Bitcoin Cycle Demonstrates Market Maturity
On the other hand, the 16.7% for today paints a calmer view. While it’s a sign that new money is still entering the market, it’s also at a rate that instills stability instead of mania.
According to the chart, while the capital rotation line stands well below former peaks, the price of Bitcoin continues to increase steadily, thanks to the tepid investors’ interest and not temporary enthusiasm.
This indicates a mature stage for Bitcoin where investor behaviors are more optimistic about the long-term outlook BTC holds. It also implies that organic growth is currently fueling the current cycle in the market.
With this stable flow, BTC can be positioned to move in a more sustainable upward trend.
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