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EigenLayer, Polymarket, and UMA Unite to Forge Advanced Oracle for Prediction Markets

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  • EigenLayer’s restaking mechanism boosts security for new prediction market oracles.
  • UMA’s decentralized voting mechanism enhances dispute resolution in prediction markets.
  • Polymarket’s oracle system evolves with EigenLayer to better align with community consensus.

Polymarket, EigenLayer, and UMA have teamed up to create the next-generation Oracle system. The intention is to improve the functionality and scalability of prediction markets and blockchain data. By collaborating with EigenLayer, the infrastructure provided by EigenLayer, such as the restake mechanism and EIGEN token, will be used to develop our Oracle system, aiming at higher reliability and scalability.

Focus on Community-Driven Consensus

An “intersubjective truth” will be the core feature of the new oracle system. This concept is based on facts agreed upon by society and does not solely depend on objective data like mathematical proof. This approach makes sense regarding prediction markets since it is based on consensus within the community about an outcome.

In blockchain ecosystems, oracles are very important as they provide real-world data to smart contracts. These mechanisms are essential for decentralized applications (dApps) where one might need to get external information such as price, weather, event results, etc. In the prediction markets realm, community dispute resolutions are key, and collaboration between EigenLayer, Polymarket, and UMA aims to improve the acceleration and scaling of oracles.

Integration of EigenLayer’s Restaking Mechanism

EigenLayer offers a unique restaking mechanism allowing users to reuse staked ETH or liquid staking tokens to secure services like oracles. This innovation strengthens the security of decentralized platforms by leveraging Ethereum’s security infrastructure. With this collaboration Ethereum stakers can help secure the new oracle, providing additional layers of economic security.

UMA’s existing Optimistic Oracle system, which Polymarket uses to settle its markets, will also be integrated into the new Oracle framework. In the current UMA system, a dispute involving a challenge to a market outcome is resolved through a decentralized voting mechanism. The new system will build upon this foundation to handle more scenarios and increase the capacity to manage prediction markets as they grow.

The three organizations are partnering to develop a blockchain oracle that has the potential to scale and power the community. Utilizing EigenLayer’s restaking mechanism and augmenting UMA’s decentralized oracle system, this collaboration aims to ensure that the oracle can satisfy the increasing needs of prediction markets and other decentralized applications.

UMA and Polymarket’s Role in the Oracle Development

Polymarket has long used UMA’s oracle system to settle prediction market outcomes. The current system allows a proposer to submit the outcome of an event, such as a political election or sports match. UMA’s decentralized voting mechanism resolves disagreements if the outcome is disputed.

With the addition of EigenLayer’s infrastructure, the new Oracle system will offer enhanced security and capacity, addressing the growing need for reliable data in decentralized platforms. The collaboration aims to improve the efficiency and accuracy of prediction markets while enabling them to scale more effectively.

Thailand proposes banning Polymarket in crackdown on illegal crypto gambling

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  • Polymarket traded $515M in early 2025 amid global gambling scrutiny.
  • Thai SEC explores local listing for spot Bitcoin ETFs to expand market.
  • Thailand ranks 16th globally in crypto adoption, Chainalysis reports.

The Thai cybercrime authorities are mulling shutting down Polymarket, a peer-to-peer prediction marketplace where people can place bets on events with cryptocurrency. The nation’s Cyber Crime Investigation Bureau (CCIB) has raised the alarm over the site as being against the country’s gambling laws. Based on the authorities, the service Polymarket employs crypto for betting on various subjects, including political, sporting, and economic, and can be considered an illegal gambling platform based on Thai legislation.

The authorities have expressed concerns regarding the platform’s use of cryptocurrency since it makes it difficult to crack down on it. The bets are placed using blockchain, which makes it almost impossible to regulate and monitor the betting and its possible abuse. The Thai cyber police claim that the shutdown of Polymarket is crucial to prevent people from engaging in unlawful gambling and stop using cryptocurrencies for criminal activities.

Global Crackdown on Polymarket

Other countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, and France have also moved to limit or ban the use of the service. For instance, the Remote Gambling Act of Singapore bans any online betting site that operates without the approval of the Singaporean authorities. This has resulted in Polymarket being blocked in the country. Taiwan has also arrested an individual who used the platform to place bets on the elections. In France, local regulators are investigating whether Polymarket is following the country’s gambling legislation.

Nevertheless, Polymarket is still functioning in some areas. The platform remains active in providing prediction markets for different events such as Super Bowl and political elections and has received high traffic in trading. Dune Analytics reported that Polymarket achieved a trading volume of $515 million in 15 days in 2025, proving that the platform has many users.

Thailand’s Digital Asset Landscape

Although the Thai police are arresting people involved in crypto betting, the country is also considering other changes to the laws concerning cryptocurrencies. The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission is considering permitting the trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs on local exchanges. This reflects the ongoing effort to expand the services for cryptocurrencies as more people embrace digital assets and create more investment opportunities for retail and institutional investors.

The country has witnessed an increased uptake of cryptocurrency trading, with the number of active crypto trading accounts rising by more than twofold in 2024. By November 2024, the number of active crypto accounts in Thailand was 270,000, up from 117,000 in the previous year. Such figures show that more people are turning to digital assets, even with issues like the ones that Polymarket faces.

Singapore Blocks Polymarket Citing Unlicensed Gambling Operations

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  • Singapore bans Polymarket citing unlicensed gambling with penalties up to SG$10,000.
  • Polymarket blocked in Singapore as GRA enforces strict unlicensed gambling laws.
  • Access to Polymarket denied in Singapore under Gambling Control Act 2022 rules.

Singapore authorities have banned Polymarket, a prediction market on the blockchain, describing it as an unregulated gambling site. This follows the country’s enhanced measures to enforce the ban on online gambling, especially illegitimate ones.

Regulation in Evolving Gambling Services

On January 12, users in Singapore trying to visit Polymarket received a warning from the authorities based on the Gambling Control Act 2022. The Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) declared Polymarket an unlicensed gambling service that is prohibited from operating within the country’s territory.

The messages displayed to visitors included penalties for interacting with unregulated gambling websites. The GRA states that violators will be subject to fines of up to 10,000, imprisonment for up to six months, or both. Singapore Pools continues to be the only legal entity permitted to offer remote gambling services in the country.

The vice president of investment and custody at Cobo Global, Alex Zuo, posted on social media,  “If you want to place a bet, you can only go to a state-owned gambling company. Otherwise, you will face fines and imprisonment.”

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Singapore Blocks Polymarket Citing Unlicensed Gambling Operations 2

The Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) was established in 2022 to enhance coordination on regulating gambling products and services as they changed over time. This decision can be attributed to the authority’s efforts to contain some online gambling activities while at the same time observing legal provisions in its territory.

Polymarket Legal Obstacles

Polymarket is based on the Polygon network and has users place bets on real events using USD Coin (USDC). However, it has been operating under the radar, and the platform has come under increasing global regulatory pressure.

The US CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million in 2022 for operating an unregulated derivatives trading platform, causing it to cease US user service. As part of the settlement, Polymarket shut down for US citizens. Nonetheless, current media suggests that the U.S. Department of Justice is looking into claims that Polymarket should not have allowed U.S. users on its platform.

Likewise, the French authorities investigated the platform for possible violations of gambling rules; people placed substantial bets on the 2024 US presidential election. The current laws of France allow only some forms of online gambling, including sports betting and poker.

Improved enforcement

Singapore’s recent decision to block Polymarket comes after a crackdown on unauthorized gambling sites. Since 2015, the authorities have shut down 3,800 gambling websites and frozen 145,000 transactions worth SG$37 million. From 1 January 2016, law enforcement against illegal gambling became the responsibility of the Singapore Police Force.

This approach comes as Singapore extends its efforts to be a leader in using blockchain and cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, the Monetary Authority of Singapore allows the development of the digital asset sector, increasing the number of crypto licenses in 2024 by twofold compared to the previous year.

Ethereum Co-Founder Sees Prediction Markets as the Future of Reliable News

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Key Takeaways:

  • Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin champions prediction markets, like Polymarket, for their potential to provide accurate public information.
  • Polymarket’s model serves both bettors and the public, often offering more transparent insights than mainstream news.
  • “Info finance” could transform governance and social media fields by incentivizing truthful outcomes.

In a newly published article, From Prediction Markets to Info Finance, “Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared his enthusiasm for prediction markets, describing them as a powerful application that has captivated him for years.

Buterin praised Polymarket as both a betting platform and a real-time news source, highlighting its accuracy during events like U.S. elections. He believes prediction markets, like Polymarket, offer credible insights into political and social outcomes, often surpassing traditional news.

He cited Venezuela’s election protests as an example, where Polymarket’s metrics emphasized the situation’s significance despite limited mainstream coverage.

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Ethereum Buterin Praises Polymarket’s Transparency

In Polymarket, the model serves two folds: as a gambling site for the active betters and as a source of news for the rest who have nothing to do with betting. This setup provides room for real-time transparency-a fact appreciated by Buterin for having cut through the sensationalism of the media.

Event-based immediate reflections by Polymarket depict which of the outcomes users consider more likely to happen, and that often differs from traditional media. Prediction markets, for example, on Polymarket, showed a 60/40 probability in favor of Trump during the 2020 U.S. election, where mainstream outlets still reported a very close race, a better snapshot using the former.

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Blockchain and AI Power’ Info Finance’ for Accurate Predictions

Looking beyond election predictions, Ethereum’s Buterin sees “info finance” as an emerging field with potential applications in social media, scientific research, and governance. Among industries, “info finance” might get better credibly by mixing financial incentives with accurate information.

But he says that with the integration of AI, smaller prediction markets will become viable on day-to-day decisions because they finally can handle low-stakes, high-volume queries for things like.

Buterin said scalable blockchain technology will make this vision a reality. “Info finance,” as he calls it, might solve modern trust problems in media, governance, and finance by simply aligning self-interest with transparent, publicly accessible data, unlocking new methods to accurately predict and respond to societal outcomes.

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87.3% of Crypto Wallets on Polymarket Report No Profits

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  • Only 12.7% of crypto wallets on Polymаrkеt hаvе rеcordеd profits, highlighting significаnt lossеs.
  • Most profitаblе wаllеts on Polymаrkеt еаrnеd lеss thаn $100, with fеw еxcееding $1,000.
  • Dеspitе lossеs, Polymаrkеt sееs $161.1 million in opеn intеrеst, drivеn by еvеnt prеdictions.

Polymаrkеt, thе populаr cryptocurrеncy-bаsеd prеdiction mаrkеt plаtform, hаs bеcomе а hotbеd for politicаl аnd еvеnt wаgеrs. Howеvеr, rеcеnt dаtа аnаlysis pаints а sobеring picturе for most usеrs. Only а mеаgеr 12.7% of crypto wallets on Polymаrkеt hаvе аctuаlly turnеd а profit.

Dаtа sourcеd from thе on-chаin аnаlytics tool Lаyеrhub shows thаt thе mаjority of usеrs on thе plаtform аrе fаcing significаnt lossеs. A stаggеring 87.3% of wаllеts—аpproximаtеly 149,383 out of а totаl of 171,113 wаllеts—hаvе fаilеd to gеnеrаtе аny profit. Only 12.7% of crypto wallets, or аbout 21,730 аccounts, hаvе sееn profit on Polymаrkеt.

Crypto Wallet Profits
Source: Layerhub

Majority of Crypto Wallets Earn Below $100

Most of thе crypto wallets thаt аchiеvеd profitаbility еаrnеd lеss thаn $100. Only 2,138 individuаls еxcееdеd $1,000 in gаins, whilе аround 7,400 wаllеts fеll into thе $100 to $1,000 profit rаngе. This skеwеd distribution highlights thе inhеrеnt risk аssociаtеd with prеdiction mаrkеts – whilе somе mаy strikе it rich, most pаrticipаnts sее minimаl or no rеturns.

Intеrеstingly, thе dаtа indicаtеs thаt а significаnt portion of Polymаrkеt’s аctivity is drivеn by high-volumе trаdеrs. Nеаrly 25,000 wаllеts hаvе pаrticipаtеd in ovеr 50 trаdеs, whilе аnothеr 32,000 hаvе conductеd bеtwееn 20 аnd 50 trаdеs. This suggеsts а dеdicаtеd group of usеrs еmploying а potеntiаlly high-risk, high-rеwаrd strаtеgy to incrеаsе thеir odds of succеss. Convеrsеly, аlmost 58,000 wаllеts hаvе only mаdе bеtwееn onе аnd fivе trаdеs, signifying а lаrgе pool of cаsuаl pаrticipаnts likеly tеsting thе wаtеrs with smаllеr wаgеrs.

Election Predictions Drive User Interest

Dеspitе thе low profit mаrgins for most usеrs, Polymаrkеt continuеs to sее significаnt intеrеst from thе crypto community. As of Octobеr 9th, thе plаtform boаsts аn opеn intеrеst of $161.1 million, rеprеsеnting thе totаl vаluе of outstаnding prеdiction contrаcts. This unwаvеring еngаgеmеnt suggеsts thаt thе аllurе of potеntiаlly lucrаtivе outcomеs, fuеlеd by еvеnts likе thе US еlеction, continuеs to аttrаct usеrs dеspitе thе odds stаckеd аgаinst thеm.

Furthеrmorе, Elon Musk’s rеcеnt еndorsеmеnt on his X sociаl mеdiа plаtform hаs furthеr boostеd Polymаrkеt’s profilе. Musk, а known supportеr of formеr US Prеsidеnt Donаld Trump, prаisеd thе plаtform’s potеntiаl to аccurаtеly prеdict еlеction outcomеs compаrеd to trаditionаl polling mеthods. This еndorsеmеnt, couplеd with Trump’s currеnt lеаd on Polymаrkеt (roughly 3 pеrcеntаgе points аs of Oct. 6), furthеr fuеl intеrеst in thе plаtform аs thе еlеction nеаrs.

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$74M Polymarket Deal: Massive Airdrop Incoming?

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  • Polymarket is considering launching a token, with speculation about a massive airdrop for early users.
  • Only 1,537 users have generated over $100,000 in volume, indicating massive potential rewards for early adopters.
  • A Points Program and multiple farming seasons could be part of the token incentive structure.

After its recent $74 million acquisition, Polymarket is now eyeing its native token launch which could lead to one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. There is speculation that the initial snapshot may have already been taken, positioning early adopters for substantial rewards.

The highly anticipated token launch could follow a multi-season structure, rewarding users who engaged with Polymarket “before it was obvious.” Early adopters would stand to gain from both initial incentives and potential subsequent airdrops. This model would mirror other high-profile airdrops in the space, notably LayerZero’s token announcement in December 2023, which triggered all-time high activity on its platform shortly after.

Polymarket
$74M Polymarket Deal: Massive Airdrop Incoming? 7

The decentralized prediction market platform could also employ a Points Program with multiple farming seasons, where users generate points that later convert into tokens during a Token Generation Event (TGE). This would likely be followed by real-time token incentives for betting and liquidity participation, further driving usage.

Whatever approach Polymarket takes, it’s clear that the platform’s metrics are poised to skyrocket as soon as the token launch is confirmed, with many users waiting for the go-ahead before making moves.

Polymarket’s Small Core User Base Could Reap Huge Rewards

Given the current metrics, only 1,537 users on Polymarket have generated over $100,000 in volume, indicating a small, core user base that could stand to receive sizable rewards. Speculation suggests that one could receive around $15,000 in token value for generating just $120,000 in volume, signaling enormous airdrop potential.

Polymarket’s increasing traction and product-market fit (PMF) make this potential airdrop even more intriguing, as it underscores how decentralized protocols continue to reward their earliest users and contributors.

Although not officially confirmed, Polymarket’s possible token launch could be one of the significant event in the crypto space, particularly for early adopters of the platform.

Crypto forecast platform Polymarket to pay a penalty of $1.4M

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Crypto betting platform Polymarket was directed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or CFTC to pay a fine of $1.4 million on 3rd January 2022 for its failure to obtain designated contract market [DCM] or registration as a swap execution facility [SEF]. In accordance with the press release, this is mandatory to offer off-exchange event-based binary options contracts and provide users with full refunds as the firm failed to meet the requirements with the regulator.

In addition to the fine, the order also requires the New York-based firm [the operating name for Blockratize, Inc.] to wind down all of its markets that do not comply with the Commodity Exchange Act 9 [CEA] and applicable CFTC regulations, and cease and desist from violating the CEA and CFTC regulations, as charged. Reading along the same line, acting Director of Enforcement Vincent McGonagle stated,

“All derivatives markets must operate within the bounds of the law regardless of the technology used, and particularly including those in the so-called decentralized finance or ‘DeFi’ space. Market participants should proactively engage with the CFTC to ensure that our markets remain robust, transparent, and afford customers the protection provided under the CEA and our regulations.”

Polymarket- Background overview

The CFTC discovered on June 2020, that Polymarket had been operating an illegal unregistered or non-designated facility for event-based binary options online trading contracts, known as “event markets.” As per the order, through its website, the crypto market platform offered public trading on binary options contracts related to events like “Will Trump win the 2020 presidential election?”. Apart from that, the order also finds that Polymarket has offered more than 900 separate event markets since 2018 while deploying smart contracts hosted on a blockchain to operate the markets.  

The order also noted that such event market contracts, each of which is composed of a pair of binary options, constitute swaps under the CFTC’s jurisdiction, and therefore can only be offered on a registered exchange in accordance with the CEA and CFTC regulations. As stated in the order, the CFTC recognizes Polymarket’s substantial cooperation with the Division of Enforcement’s investigation of this matter in the form of a reduced civil monetary penalty.