- Whale accumulation increases while retail remains cautious
- Over 62% of BTC supply remains untouched for over a year
- Max Intersect SMA model hasn’t triggered Bitcoin’s final top
The current Bitcoin bull cycle could continue because there are no long-term indicators to show that the top is near. Although there is sell pressure and price fluctuations prices, the signals from the past cycle peaks are inactive. Analysts say the absence of a confirmed top gives the market more room for further upside.
Max Intersect SMA Model Shows Upside Potential
The Max Intersect SMA Model from Alphractal, which predicted earlier Bitcoin tops, has not been activated during this cycle. Bitcoin must hit a projected smart moving average at $69,000 to confirm that it has reached its highest point. Although the price is higher than $103,000, it is still above the signal line which means the top is still ahead.
This model which relies on custom price interaction, has always marked the peak of Bitcoin’s bull runs. Historically, prices tend to increase for several months once they reach $100,000. Therefore, it is possible that the cycle will continue into the next quarter before coming to an end.
Whale Accumulation and Dormant Bitcoin Supply Sparks Optimism
Whales accumulation supports this theory because large investors increase their investments despite the market being uncertain. According to Alphractal’s Whale vs. Retail Ratio, whales are buying more, but retail investors show little interest. Historically, this pattern appears before institutional capital helps lead the market to sharp rallies.
Moreover, Glassnode’s blockchain data reveals that a record amount of Bitcoin supply is currently dormant which encourages market confidence. More than 62% of all coins have remained inactive for more than a year which is similar to what happened before previous cycle peaks. These situations mean there is less selling pressure, especially when there is new market demand.
Investor Confidence Creates Supply Risks
When the supply of cryptocurrencies on exchanges decreases, a rise in demand could cause prices to rise. This proves that long-term investors are confident in their positions and not ready to sell their assets at current market prices. Consequently, a rise in demand could cause a major shortage of supply.
Glassnode’s cohort data shows that the accumulation trend is growing across diverse wallets sizes. Wallets with 10 to 100 BTC are showing substantial accumulation with a score of 1.0. When cohorts accumulate at the same time, it shows the market is in sync and investors are still confident.
Realized Profit Cautions Short-term Resistance
There is still some short-term resistance, based on the realized profit data. On May 25, the market took $1.47 billion in profits which caused tension in the market at current prices. As accumulation rises, it is not sufficient to offset the selling from older holders.
The exit strategy has not been set off, which keeps long-term investors involved. Analysts maintain that until Bitcoin intersects the $69,000 model line, the cycle top remains unconfirmed. The trend remains positive, but investors should be careful. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin trades at $104,880.
Related Reading | Crypto Alliance Demands Bold Action: Add BRCA to Clarity Bill Now