- The divergence in price performance between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq is a sign that the leading cryptocurrency may be decoupling itself from the U.S. stock market.
- Arthur Hayes believes that BTC is becoming a purer asset that is less affected by equities’ performance.
- BTC stands at $82.7K, and Nasdaq has collapsed by well over 13% in a matter of days.
A big change in the market dynamics could be on the cards as Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be breaking its correlation with traditional equity markets, most notably the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). According to Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, Bitcoin is becoming a more independent asset, much like a ‘fiat liquidity smoke alarm.’
Source: X @Arthur Hayes
After going down about 13.58 percent in only five trading sessions, BTC has bounced back, trading around $84,187. This rebound is a signal that the coin may be entering a big move in macro decoupling.
Nasdaq’s Crash and Bitcoin’s Resilience
Traditionally, Bitcoin has generally been one of the riskiest assets especially in terms of high volatility. However, its latest price behaviour is a different story.
With the rest of the cryptocurrencies falling on the back of interest rate pressures and liquidity, Bitcoin hovers around support zones and appears equivalently strong in comparison. Arthur Hayes is confident that this current trend is far more than a temporary anomaly.
He believes that BTC is nearing a transition to a less technical stock proxy and more as a measure of global fiat liquidity. This would make sense with the original goal of the coin’s creator as a decentralized, inflation-resistant store of value.
Impact of Global Liquidity Cycles on Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Should Bitcoin continue to move from a correlation to a divergence with equities, that could encourage more macro hedge or residual asset interest in it. However, traditional correlations on which traders can rely may now break down.
If Hayes is correct, this could lead to a new perspective on BTC in 2025, one that relies more on global liquidity trends and the movement of money out of traditional markets, rather than on tech stock performance.
