- Bitcoin must hold above $91,200 (111-day average) to sustain its current upward momentum.
- Resistance between $93,000–$100,000 may trigger selling as holders aim to break even.
- Beyond $100,000, supply thins out, offering a potential “blue skies” rally opportunity.
Bitcoin has entered May on a strong note, continuing the upward momentum that began in late April. Traders are eyeing the $100,000 mark, but experts urge caution. While excitement builds, an influential crypto analyst has identified a key support level that could decide whether the trend remains upward or falters.
On May 2, analyst Burak Kesmeci posted an in-depth look at Bitcoin’s chart on the X platform, highlighting the 111-day moving average as an essential indicator. According to his findings, this level — currently around $91,200 — serves as the most important price floor for Bitcoin in the coming weeks. This average often signals areas where Bitcoin rebounds, giving investors potential entry points.
This moving average is a component of the Pi Cycle Top & Bottom indicator, which relies on the 111-day and 350-day moving averages to spot peaks in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Historically, when the short-term average crosses above the longer one, it has marked the end of bull runs. However, that crossover has not yet happened.
Bitcoin Needs Weekly Closes Above $91K
Kesmeci explained that the two moving averages are now drifting apart, which implies Bitcoin still has room to grow. He emphasized that for Bitcoin to sustain this positive trend, it must hold above the $91,200 level over multiple weekly closes. This technical detail may shape the coin’s near-term behavior more than the hype surrounding the $100,000 target.
At the same time, analyst Checkmate brought attention to another potential barrier. Using a supply distribution heatmap, he pointed to the $93,000 to $100,000 range as a dense zone filled with prior investor cost bases. These price clusters suggest strong resistance, as many holders could be waiting to sell once prices return to their original buying levels.
This creates a psychological challenge for Bitcoin. With many investors sitting on previous losses, the urge to exit at break-even points might trigger a wave of selling in this price range, slowing momentum just as excitement peaks.
Blue Skies Above $100K Zone
Despite the crowding in the $93,000–$100,000 range, Checkmate highlighted that supply drops off sharply beyond $100,000. That means far fewer coins were bought above this level, suggesting lighter resistance ahead. He described the path beyond $100,000 as “blue skies,” implying that a clean breakout could fuel a strong rally.
Yet the risk remains. Failing to break through this high-density area could trap Bitcoin in a new phase of sideways movement. Consolidation, while not bearish, would delay the run toward new highs many are anticipating.
As of now, Bitcoin trades at $95,919, reflecting a slight 0.67% dip over the past 24 hours. Whether it can maintain support above $91,200 or push through the resistance at $100,000 may determine the shape of the market in the weeks ahead.
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