Bitcoin has more chance of hitting $10 million by 2023 only if layer technology and wallet infrastructure improves.
The mind-boggling prediction was first made by the late Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin contributor, in his infamous Bitcoin thought experiment 13 years ago.
To recall, let’s go back to what he wrote. According to Finney’s “amusing thought experiment,” the inherent 21 million coin emission restriction of BTC would force its price to soar if it becomes the main payment system in the world.
In Finney’s estimation, the total global household wealth at the time of writing was anywhere between 100 and 300 trillion US dollars. “With 20 million coins, each coin has an approximate worth of $10 million.”
Finney’s predictions were criticized as being too optimistic. One of them, which skeptics regarded as overreaching, was the notion that the entire world will run only on Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, the world’s economy has grown since the post was made and the recent recovery in the cryptocurrency market has given rise to a more upbeat view.
CEO of Blockstream Adam Back has taken to Twitter to discuss the possible scenarios where Finney’s $10 million projection might turn into reality.
Bitcoin’s Price Has Doubled Since 2013
According to Back, a Bitcoin core contributor, if BTC layer-2 technology and wallet infrastructure continue to advance, BTC might reach $10 million by the end of the sixth halving in 2032.
He pointed out that, on average, since 2013, the price of BTC has increased two-fold, and if this pattern holds, the value of the world’s dominant crypto would tap $10 million and a market worth of $200 trillion in around nine years.
Back clarified that for that number to be reached, advancements in wallet infrastructure and layer-2 Bitcoin technology must be accelerated to allow for these advances to scale:
“i think things will get “interesting” over the next two halvings. and fast, we don’t have much time to scale tech. we need somewhere for the next billion users to own their own UTXO, their own keys, with censorship-resistant cold storage. without weakening main-chain security.”
The chief exec also doubled down on hyperbitcoinization, which he believes might act as a catalyst for the next wave of adoption. The term indicates a hyper-inflationary environment where people would see adopting Bitcoin as the only “pragmatic solution”.