- Bitcoin’s recent sell-off raises concerns of a local peak, mirroring late-stage bull market behavior.
- Since 2024, BTC’s 7-day moving average for realized profits has stayed positive, reaching $1B daily.
- If profit-taking continues, BTC could face a sharp pullback to around $90,000, cryptoQuant expert warns.
Bitcoin investors have been selling heavily after its recent price surge, raising concerns that a local peak might be forming. In a CryptoQuant Quicktake report, Kripto Mevsimi noted that this wave of selling aligns with patterns typically observed toward the end of a bull market. The pattern suggests traders are locking in gains as the cryptocurrency approaches key resistance levels.
Since early 2024, Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average of net realized profit and loss has remained largely positive. During its climb to new all-time highs last year, the measure even reached $1 billion per day. This shows traders have been taking profits at a faster pace while the price keeps climbing.
Despite Bitcoin’s price drop between March and April 2025, profit-taking did not slow down. The cryptocurrency managed to recover most of its earlier losses and is now trading at $99,587.
Bitcoin Faces Local Top Warning Signs
Mevsimi compared the current market conditions to the 2021 cycle. He explained that high realized profits while the price keeps rising usually point to a late-stage bull market. “Such strong realized profits – even as prices rise – typically signal a late-stage bull market,” Mevsimi noted. He added that similar profit-taking patterns were seen before a local top formed in 2021.
A major shift came with the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January 2024. This changed how the market functions, yet investor behavior remains similar. Mevsimi pointed out that traders still take profits in the same way, only now the pace and size have grown due to new investment products.
Mevsimi laid out different ways the market could unfold. If high realized profits continue, the chance of a sharp pullback grows, which could pull Bitcoin back toward $90,000. On the flip side, if fewer investors take profits, it might signal a change toward a more stable market phase. Short-term price swings are expected no matter which path unfolds.
The signal is not calling a full macro top, but it’s flashing a local caution zone. As always: zoom out, and follow behavior — not just price,” he advised.
Will Bitcoin Push Past $100K?
At the same time, other traders are sharing their views on Bitcoin’s near-term direction. On May 8, a trader known as The Crypto Titan wrote on X that Bitcoin had broken out of its daily consolidation and reached $99,000. He suggested a correction might follow once it crosses $100,000, a level many are watching closely.
Another trader, Crypto Nova, posted on X on May 7 that the cryptocurrency could be nearing a local top or might break through without a big pullback. Nova explained that if it drops below the support zone around $94,000 to $96,000, the price might fall further toward $88,000 before regaining momentum.
If Bitcoin holds above $96,000 and breaks the resistance range of $96,000 to $99,000, Nova believes it could clear the way to higher prices. This scenario could set the cryptocurrency on a path toward $109,700 and raise hopes for fresh all-time highs.
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