- Bitcoin exchange inflows have dropped from 81,000 BTC to 29,000 BTC since late 2024.
- Analyst Axel Adler Jr. sees a structural supply shortage, hinting at a potential price surge.
- The 60-day CDD metric is declining, signaling that long-term holders are not selling.
Bitcoin has entered a fresh phase of consolidation as sell pressure dwindles, with exchange inflows dropping to their lowest levels in nearly two years. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that fewer Bitcoin holders are offloading their assets, potentially setting the stage for the next major price movement.
Axel Adler Jr., a contributor at CryptoQuant, shared insights on April 1, emphasizing that Bitcoin sellers had effectively “dried up.” He pointed to a substantial decrease in Bitcoin moving to exchanges, a key indicator of selling pressure. Since it first pushed past the $100,000 mark in late 2024, daily exchange inflows have plummeted from 81,000 BTC to just 29,000 BTC.
“The market has successfully absorbed waves of profit-taking following the break above $100K,” Adler observed. He further noted that the seven-day average inflows to major exchanges hit their lowest levels on March 23—levels unseen since May 2023, when it was priced under $30,000.
A Structural Shift in Bitcoin’s Market
With prices nearly tripling compared to May 2023, Adler believes the market is moving toward a structural supply shortage. Market participants willing to buy at prevailing rates indicate reduced selling activity, reinforcing supply constraints.
April-May could turn into a consolidation zone—a calm before the next impulse,” Adler noted.
The current market behavior suggests that Bitcoin could be entering a period of relative stability before its next price surge. Lower exchange inflows mean fewer coins are available for sale, which could push prices higher if demand remains strong.
Adding to the bullish outlook, another CryptoQuant analyst, known as Banker, pointed to the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator as evidence of healthy market conditions. The CDD metric tracks the movement of long-dormant Bitcoin, offering insights into long-term holder behavior.
Long-Term Holders Stay Put
A banker’s analysis highlighted a crucial trend that the 60-day moving average of CDD has been steadily declining since March 3, 2025. This suggests that older Bitcoin, which has remained untouched for extended periods, is not being moved in significant amounts. Historically, spikes in CDD coincide with major market shifts, as long-term holders sell into rallies. The absence of such spikes now implies these investors are staying put.
“A low and falling CDD is generally a positive sign for Bitcoin’s market structure,” Banker explained. “It means that long-term investors, often regarded as the ‘smart money,’ are not offloading their holdings en masse anymore.”
This trend reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is not facing significant sell pressure from seasoned investors. Instead, the market appears to be entering a phase where supply is limited while demand remains steady. If this continues, it could create conditions favorable for another upward price movement.
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