- Bitcoin recorded an all-time high of 124,000 a few days ago, only to fall after two bearish candles, increasing the caution of investors.
- The month of August was one of calm price consolidation, but Q4, in turn, is to be marked with a robust rally.
- Profit-taking is decelerating, SOPR divergence suggesting it is possible to face unstable development in the market.
Bitcoin recently reached a new peak above $124,000. The price, however, decreased to a key level after two straight bearish daily candle prints. As the market consolidates, investors are anticipating a market reversal and closely monitoring any potential shift in momentum.
The month of August has been very calm on the Bitcoin front, and there has been little activity. Daan Crypto Trades reports that consolidation of the price in an even range has not shown a clear direction. Bitcoin has been characterized as volatile during the fall, though a big rally is likely to be experienced at the end of the year.
Source: X
Bitcoin’s Potential Q4 Surge: A Pattern Repeating
Bitcoin has seen little break of green months in both the months of August and September. A period of severe fall, followed by a groundbreaking 4th quarter rise, is customary. In the event of a bigger flush in the next few weeks, it could be the last pullback before a big end-of-year rally, as it has been the scenario in previous bull markets.
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However, when looking into the future, October and November will be the best months to take a risk when it comes to Bitcoin. The months are traditionally strong months for the cryptocurrency. Although past performance is not guaranteed, traders are certain that the bullish trend will continue within the last months of the year.
On the daily time frame, BTC is positioned at the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel. A weakness below this figure may indicate a shift towards the $110,000 zone, which is firmly supported by the 100-day moving method. As long as the price stays within the channel, it still has the potential to rise, possibly reaching a peak of $130,000 or higher.
Source: TradingView
In the meanwhile, short-term holders are exhibiting profiteering trends. CryptoQuant data suggests that the Short-Term Holder SOPR today was above 1, meaning that short-term investors are realizing profits on their investments. It indicates that the market is healthy in mood, and the profit-taking is not over yet.
Profit-Taking Slows as BTC Faces Market Instability
The SOPR has been above 1 during the rallies, which is an indication that short-term holders are making profits. Nevertheless, this situation is changing, as with the onset of 2024, a decrease in the size of the profit-taking has been noted. Such divergence between the price tops and SOPR tops is an indication that the profit margin is declining, possibly a sign of market instability, a phenomenon to be expected in the short run.
Source: CryptoQuant
Nevertheless, Bitcoin has a bullish trend. The market is demonstrating holding positions well on key levels, especially the 110K area. As long as the price remains above this level, then there is a high probability that Bitcoin will experience yet another rally to $130,000 or beyond by year-end.
The action of the price of BTC is at a critical point. A breakout or breakdown out of the range is highly anticipated by the investors. The ensuing weeks would be important in shedding valuable light on the direction of the market, and Q4 would perhaps be a pivotal time in the movement of the price of Bitcoin.
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