As 2023 drew to a close, Bitcoin long-term holders [LTHs], characterized by those holding coins for more than 155 days, exhibited a notable surge in accumulation, reaching unprecedented levels. This trend underscores the unwavering commitment and confidence among long-term investors to retain their Bitcoin holdings despite market fluctuations. The 155-day threshold serves as a demarcation between LTHs and short-term holders [STHs], who hold coins for shorter durations. The heightened accumulation by LTHs not only signifies bullish sentiment but also suggests potential long-term resilience in Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
A key metric for gauging the movements of the LTH group is the combined supply held in their wallets. According to analyst Maartunn’s graph, the overall trajectory of Bitcoin LTH supply depicted a consistent uptrend throughout 2023. The culmination of the year witnessed a particularly steep increase in the percentage of the total circulating supply controlled by these committed holders, setting consecutive all-time highs.
With the recent surge, LTHs are approaching dominance over 80% of the supply, a substantial portion securely held in the wallets of these steadfast investors. This significant proportion being effectively “HODLed” is indicative of a positive trajectory for Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin commenced the new year on a high note, reaching $45,000, marking its highest value in two years. However, Andrew Kang expresses reservations about the potential mispricing in anticipation of ETF inflows in 2024, tempering the excitement surrounding the halving event. While the consensus acknowledges the long-term bullish impact of ETFs on BTC, Kang emphasizes the underappreciated aspect of frontloading ETF flows.
Bitcoin ETF Bonanza
Comparing the scenario to gold ETFs, which boast $120 billion in assets under management [AUM] with an average expense ratio of 0.6%, Kang highlights the considerable fees generated annually. The net present value of these fees is estimated to be in the range of $10–20 billion. He points out that ETF issuers will fiercely compete for this substantial future fee pool, emphasizing the critical importance of marketing efforts in 2024.
Kang underscores the significance of timing for ETF issuers, anticipating a marketing and ad spending spree reminiscent of the 2021 bull market. Recognizing the vast opportunity, he suggests that the scale of marketing efforts may even surpass the previous bullish madness. In conclusion, Kang envisions a potential bonanza in the ETF landscape, with heightened competition and strategic marketing playing pivotal roles in shaping the future landscape of Bitcoin investments.