On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that Bitcoin is close to surpassing 20,000 wallets holding at least 100 BTC. At current valuations, 100 Bitcoin equals roughly $6.78 million, meaning these addresses are largely controlled by high-net-worth individuals, investment funds, long-term holders, or institutions.
The timing of this growth is also significant. The number of large wallets has been increasing while the prices have been struggling to go up.
Historically, the number of large wallets with 100+ BTC during or after a price drop has indicated a period of quiet buying. Strong hands tend to buy more when market sentiment is weak.
There is one important detail. Even though more large wallets are emerging, the percentage of the total supply in big holders’ hands is not increasing much.
This is why prices are remaining under pressure. Accumulation is happening, but not at a pace that can alter the supply dynamics quickly.
Source: Santiment
The rise in the number of whale wallets indicates that more large holders are holding a portion of the supply, as opposed to a few large wallets. Rather than a few groups dominating the majority of the coins, more distinct individuals are joining the whale community.
However, the development also indicates that the coins are being transferred from smaller retail investors to stronger and larger holders.
Historically, such developments have been observed prior to a broader market recovery, as retail investors usually sell during market volatility.
Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Slides After Failed Recovery Bears Push Price Toward Support
Bitcoin Halving Cycles Point to 2026 Timing Window
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant took a longer-term perspective. Based on the halving cycles in the past, they stated that market bottoms tend to take a long time to develop.
If this halving cycle follows the same trend as the previous ones, then from April 19, 2024, the macro bottom dates would be 777 days, 889 days, or 925 days after the previous points.
This makes a broader period from June to December 2026, and September to November 2026 is generally the bottoming zone.
The charts of the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 cycles are similar, with accumulation at the start, a strong expansion phase, a long correction phase, and finally a big bottom.
Source: CryptoQuant
Market Maturity and Diminishing Returns
The 2012 cycle had large gains and many price fluctuations due to the immaturity and small size of the market. In 2016, the price action became more predictable, with many waves and a rounded bottom.
The 2020 cycle had less extreme but more prolonged drawdowns, facilitated by increased liquidity and the involvement of large institutions. The current cycle of 2024 appears to be less eventful so far.
The percentage gains are smaller than in the past, indicating diminishing gains with the growing market size. Although volatility has decreased, the process of accumulating, expanding, correcting, and recovering remains the same.
