The Bitcoin Price has continued to recover from its June low, with monthly closes moving higher for three consecutive months. Analyst Ben Cowen now says the burden of proof has shifted toward bears after Bitcoin moved above its May high, raising the possibility that the July low marked the current four-year cycle bottom.
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Bitcoin’s June 30 monthly close marked the lowest point of the recent decline, according to Koyfin data. Since then, each monthly close has improved. Bitcoin finished July 45.13% below its October 1, 2025 level, August 31.21% below, and September 27.05% below, while the September close became the strongest since December.
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Bitcoin Price Recovers From June Low
The recovery has not yet erased Bitcoin’s broader decline. The cryptocurrency is still down by more than 25% relative to its level on October 1, 2025, even as it is trading back above $85,000. Meanwhile, retail sentiment in the market has gone from bearish to neutral on Stocktwits, as Bitcoin conversation volume has fallen from normal to low in the most recent 24 hours.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s cycle low could have happened in July as a result of a breakout above the high in May. As Cowen explained in an interview with Real Vision, the time frame has been “earliest ever for a cycle low in Bitcoin.” In previous cycles, Cowen added that the cycle low has always occurred during Q4 of the year.
It is critical to note that the four-year cycle that Cowen talked about is associated with Bitcoin’s halving periods. This is because Bitcoin’s halving decreases the incentive given to miners for adding new Bitcoins to the supply. However, past performance of the cycle cannot guarantee future performance.
Bitcoin Price Faces Another Key $87K Test
One more market view introduces a slightly more conservative viewpoint. According to a recent post by That Martini Guy, Bitcoin has started to look similar to the range formation in late 2025 when the cryptocurrency consolidated for some weeks before falling lower. The previous range formed in the area around $86,000 and $95,000, while the current one recently saw a rejection from the level of $87,000.
As per That Martini Guy, a break and hold above $87,000 would reduce the similarity between the present consolidation pattern and late 2025 and show that the current consolidation is part of the continuation of the rebound. Another rejection from the level along with a breakdown below the lower range boundary, would make the historical comparison more significant.
StoneX’s Bitcoin outlook for Q4 2026 provides additional background for the discussion of the bigger cycle. StoneX suggested that the four-year halving cycle implies that Bitcoin may be coming to the end of its bear market period. The buying of new Bitcoin ETFs, valuations and increased holding of BTC have played the role of contributing factors.
According to StoneX, Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score had recovered to about 0.8, which means that the current value is much higher than historical bottoms for the bear markets but significantly lower compared to previous peaks of the cycles. StoneX added that low volatility of the MVRV Z-Score may imply changes in the market structure.
Bitcoin Price Faces Key Q4 Factors
StoneX listed several factors that could affect the Bitcoin Price in the fourth quarter. Bitcoin ETF flows have been restored and have reached almost $57 billion, with a growth of $4 billion from the previous three months. Additionally, long-term holders were also reported to control more than 63% of the Bitcoin supply.
The macroeconomic picture remains mixed. Global money supply continues to grow, which can support Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity narrative, but rising inflation concerns and changing central-bank policies could create pressure. A trend of rising interest rate could become a threat to risk assets, but fears about government debt and devaluation of the currency could also support Bitcoin price.
For now, the key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s higher monthly closes and break above the May high have strengthened the case for a July cycle low. However, the level of $87,000, mentioned by Martini Guy, should be noted as an important resistance level in the short term.
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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
