- Bitcoin’s Q2 closing price will determine if MicroStrategy qualifies for the S&P 500 index.
- Analyst Jeff Walton says BTC must stay above $95,240 to meet earnings requirements.
- If successful, MicroStrategy would join Coinbase as the second crypto-linked firm in the S&P 500.
Bitcoin could be the deciding factor in whether MicroStrategy (MSTR), the publicly traded firm with the largest BTC reserves, secures a spot in the S&P 500 index. The company’s inclusion now hinges on Bitcoin avoiding a sharp decline before the end of the second quarter.
Financial analyst Jeff Walton said in a video released Tuesday that MicroStrategy has a 91% chance of qualifying for the S&P 500 if Bitcoin doesn’t fall more than 10% by June 30. At the time of his analysis, BTC was trading around $106,044.
Walton identified $95,240 as the critical threshold. Should Bitcoin close below that level, MicroStrategy may not meet the cumulative earnings requirement needed for index eligibility. “To be considered for the S&P 500, a company must report cumulative positive earnings across the past four quarters,” he explained.
Despite its aggressive Bitcoin strategy, MicroStrategy has posted losses in three of the last four quarters. With current holdings of 592,345 BTC, its Q2 earnings are largely dictated by the crypto asset’s fair market value.
The situation intensified after Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 over the weekend amid geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, momentarily putting MicroStrategy’s S&P prospects at risk. Prices have since rebounded; currently, BTC is trading at $ 107,090 with a 24-hour trading volume of $ 36.16B and a market cap of $ 2.13T. BTC price increased 1.82% in the last 24 hours.
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Bitcoin May Push MicroStrategy Into S&P 500
The company adopted new accounting standards (ASU 2023-08) at the start of 2024, allowing unrealized gains and losses on Bitcoin to impact net income. This policy shift significantly affects its financial results and its qualification for the S&P 500.
Walton’s forecast leans on historical data. Since September 2014, Bitcoin has only dropped more than 10% over six days 343 times out of more than 3,900 periods, about 8.7% of the time. “The longer we go without a drop, the lower the odds get,” he said. When just two days remain in the quarter, the chance of a 10% decline falls to 4.2%.
If MicroStrategy succeeds, it would be the second crypto-linked firm to enter the S&P 500 in 2025, following Coinbase’s addition in May. The company previously joined the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024, marking its growing recognition in traditional finance circles.
Looking ahead, MicroStrategy plans to raise $2.1 billion through the sale of its 10% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock, mirroring past fundraising efforts that fueled major BTC acquisitions.
Walton, a long-time bull on MicroStrategy, remains confident in the company’s BTC-first strategy: “Strategy holds more of the best asset and most pristine collateral on the planet than any other company, by multiples,” he said, going as far as to claim MicroStrategy could one day become the world’s most valuable public firm.
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