- Global M2 expansion sets the stage for a possible BTC breakout
- Bitcoin dips after U.S.–Iran tensions escalate over nuclear sites
- Long-term holders accumulate as exchange reserves hit new lows
Bitcoin price is at a critical stage after it dropped below the important support level over the weekend. In the meantime, the global liquidity M2 indicators are bullish. The traders are preparing for the next major move with mixed technical and geopolitical indicators.
The Global M2 money supply is increasing, which strengthens the bullish scenario of Bitcoin. The past trends reveal that there is a definite correlation between the increase in M2 and the rise in the price of Bitcoin. Thus, the recent surge in global liquidity raises the chances of a new upward momentum.
Technical Indicators Points to Imminent Rebound
However, Bitcoin’s price fell under the 50-day EMA following renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. After the United States attacked Iranian nuclear sites, the market reacted with increased volatility. As a result, Bitcoin dropped to $98,000, falling below May’s swing low.
Now, Bitcoin trades under its 20-day EMA while testing the previous support zone near $100,000. In the event that it breaks this level, downside risk may widen to the $95,000 region. However, a breakout above $103,000 could open the door for BTC to reclaim $112,000.
Market Sentiment Remains Cautious
CME futures market displays a technical gap around $103,600, which is partially filled. In the past trends, these gaps tend to narrow fast during early-week sessions. However, the current market is very sensitive to macro headline and sentiment shock.
Long-term holders are still accumulating Bitcoin despite the short-term weakness. CryptoQuant on-chain data affirm that exchange reserves have dropped to 2.4 million BTC, a 700,000 BTC drop from the previous year. This means that investors are confident despite the short-term volatility.
However, the behavior of futures markets shows a cautious mood. The Net Taker Buy Volume has become negative which indicates a bearish position from leveraged traders. This indicator needs to rebound to give the bullish momentum in the derivatives market.
Geopolitical Tensions Reverse Bitcoin Momentum
In Q2 2025, Bitcoin rebounded off the weakness in Q1 to record a new all-time high of $112,000. The rally came after the trade tensions between the U.S. and China were reduced and improved global economic outlook. However, geopolitical concerns reversed that momentum in mid-June.
Political threats and military action shook investor confidence since June 10 as Bitcoin struggled to regain momentum. The market momentum was temporarily boosted by strong jobs data but was overtaken by the conflict in the Middle East. At this point, macroeconomic and geopolitical clarity determines price direction.
In case Bitcoin surpasses the June swing high, $120,000 could appear on the radar before the end month. However, in case bears continue to exert pressure, a fall toward the $95,000 range could still be on the cards. The traders monitor the support and resistance areas for the next critical action.
Related Read| Crypto Market Plunges Amid $1B Liquidation After U.S. Strikes Iran
