- Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle model is breaking down amid shifting institutional behavior.
- Former cycle patterns like whale accumulation and retail-driven selloffs no longer apply in today’s market.
- Crypto expert admits past predictions failed and calls for data-driven, adaptive strategies going forward.
Bitcoin price predictions have been really surprising following CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju publicly apologized for his inaccurate guess of an end to the bull cycle. Last April 2025, Ju observed that Bitcoin’s bullish trend was set to be depleted.
However, he recently posted on X (formerly Twitter) that he understood that the crypto market changed very fast, and his once accurate hypothesis of markets no longer applies to current trends.
Ju’s reasoning relied on the general understanding that Bitcoin falls into a four-year bull and bear cycle stimulated primarily by whale accumulation and retail speculation. Big holders, or “whales”, once stacked up in declining markets and sold into retail manias.
However, as Ju opines, no more. Rather than selling their holdings to retail traders, whales are transferring theirs into institutional treasuries as well as long-term funds, breaking up the liquidity cycle that analysts relied on. He noted: “Buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.”
Realizing what his prediction would entail, Ju apologized to investors and followers who were able to act on his analysis. “I apologize sincerely if your investment was impacted due to my prediction. In the future, I will be more careful with projections and will make every effort to provide data-driven insights,” he wrote.
He further emphasized that new forms of analysis would be required to manage the constantly evolving digital asset ecosystem, with conventional models no longer sufficient for predicting behavioral trends in markets.
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Bitcoin Peak Expected by October 2025?
While Ju calls for a new approach, some argue Bitcoin still adheres to previous market trends. Bitcoin Magazine Pro analysts believe there will be a top in or around October 2025, arguing that accumulation and trading activity right now represent previous bull rallies.
Renowned crypto commentator Ran Neuner (Ran Neer) suggests that the going rate currently looks good for a further bull rally into the end of 2025 due to increasing institutional involvement and mass adoption.
With a maturing Bitcoin and increasingly diversified players in the market, employing outdated theories can be hazardous. Ki Young Ju’s admission highlights the importance of versatility and ongoing learning for crypto investing.
Institutional players’ new dynamics on cycles require investors to be ever vigilant, take multi-dimensional strategies, and be open to changing trends in the market.
Also Read | Bitcoin’s 63.35% Dominance: Will Altcoins Experience a Major Reversal?
