Since reaching its historical $20,000 mark, the biggest crypto, Bitcoin has undoubtedly had it rough. When the 2017 December to January 2018 frenzy came to an end, everyone expected bitcoin to recover. Unfortunately, the coin didn’t recover, but instead, things kept going even worse.
At the moment, Bitcoin hovers at $3,900 without a say whether we’ll see a further deepening. Now, as expected, traders and experts have stepped up to give their opinion both about the bear market as well as what to expect.
Interestingly, this time around they are basing the predictions over historical trends rather than the usual dreams we’ve got used to in the past.
Bitcoin Trading in Multi-Year Cycles
Since the crypto hit public markets, it has traded in multi-year cycles. What it implies is that in every few years it runs parabolically before a dramatic filthy 80% drawdown. By this point, going by history, bitcoin has done it at least twice or thrice.
80% down from a recent historical high means that sell-offs are only in a rearview mirror. According to some analysts, if BTC bottomed in late-December, then that was perfectly on point timing when compared to the historical pullbacks.
So, are we there yet?
Indeed, whether BTC has already bottomed out or not is a question with intense debate. For most traders and analysts, it already has. However, let’s not hide the fact that many times the coin has surprised us managing a break of one support level after another.
According to an explanation from Roger Quantrillo (a top crypto expert), the price action from late-December 2017 to early 2019 is a copy to the rally as well as the subsequent collapse of the coin in the past market cycles. Moreover, he states that after it surpassed a long-term upward trend line, it took it 434 days to hit bottom back in 2015.
History Often Rhymes and Doesn’t Repeat Itself
The price may not necessarily be the same to that of 2014/15, but regarding the time, it’s perfectly on point! Therefore, if indeed BTC bottomed late last year, then it implies that the current bear market as well took 434 days to bottom.
What does that mean going as per the history?
Quantrillo notes that in case it’s a matter of history rhyming, then BTC will ensure the current bear market is taking its last breaths by breaking by late-2019. What it means now is that hoping that history rhymes, Bitcoin could slowly but steadily start to move higher and eventually establishing in its old good or even going beyond by early-2021.
What if it’s all wrong?
Perhaps, all may seem to the point that bitcoin may start to grind higher, however, lower lows may not be yet out of sight. Trader Jonny Moe decided to look at the coin from the other side stating that despite the positive expectations, we may still have a likelihood for bitcoin going below $3,220 moving forward.
At the moment, nothing is certain as to where bitcoin will be headed, up or down, but one thing is for sure, it will take a direction. Whether it will produce its surprise antics as we’ve come to understand it or match with the theory, only the future has the answers. Roll your dice and take the risk; after all, something will happen.
Image courtesy of Pixabay.
Disclaimer: The presented information is subjected to market condition and may include the very own opinion of the author. Please do your ‘very own’ market research before making any investment in cryptocurrencies. Neither the writer nor the publication (TronWeekly.com) holds any responsibility for your financial loss.
