- Bitcoin is moving beyond the outdated 4-year cycle model, currently trading at $88K.
- Statistical analysis shows the log-time LPPL model is far more accurate than the fixed 4-year model.
- The next structural peak for Bitcoin could reach $619K by August 2029, with a lower-volatility growth phase underway.
Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors have long followed the so-called 4-year cycle, tied to post-halving peaks and expected crashes. This model predicted a peak in October 2025 of around $250K, followed by a steep decline in 2026.
Many traders now fear the model has failed, given Bitcoin’s current price of $88K. However, financial expert David argues this narrative is outdated. He explains that using a 4-year cycle to gauge the growth of Bitcoin just doesn’t make mathematical sense.
A linear growth pattern on Bitcoin just isn’t there, as it’s a logarithmic growth, so consistent peaks and dips are just things beyond a 40-year-old’s expectations. The 4-year cycle was a part of the immature years of Bitcoin, not its mature years.
Also Read: Bitcoin’s Santa Rally: A Glimpse of Hope Amidst Volatility in 2025
Comparing Bitcoin Cycle Models
David compares the fixed 4-year model with the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model, which considers Bitcoin as a living system. The comparison shows that the AIC value of the LPPL model is -7,510.5, and it is -6,386.1 in the 4-year model.
In statistical analysis, values over 10 provide strong support, and in this case, it is over 1,100, so it basically eliminates the old cycle model.
Source: X
Beyond the figures, the LPPL model shows the natural frequency of Bitcoin in log-time, indicating that the cycles prolong as the size of the network expands.
The cycles in the early years were rapid and strong, but in the later years, the cycles are slower and more energy-related. This is what is known as ‘time dilation,’ and this is why the ‘old cycles no longer apply.
From Fear of a Crash to the Next Supercycle
According to the 4-year model, there will be an 80% crash in 2026, yet statistics reveal that Bitcoin’s movements have cooled down, and large crashes will be fewer. Since the damping rate has been reduced to -0.40, the market is entering into a calm development phase.
Investors are withdrawing their funds around $88K to avoid the fake bear market, although the LPPL model foresees a breakout in 2026, which may take the price to $219K by the year-end. Looking forward in time, the peak of Bitcoin will increase to $619K by August of 2029.
This particular shift represents the transition from speculative cycles to the fact that Bitcoin is becoming an independent global asset class. Its large size also means that selling at this stage is not the smartest move.
Also Read: BlackRock’s Big Bet on Bitcoin: A Sign of Institutional Adoption in 2025
