Bitcoin investors are being advised to act swiftly, with a two-week window potentially marking the final opportunity to acquire BTC at “bargain-buying” prices before a pre-halving rally, according to pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital. In a recent post to their substantial following, Rekt Capital outlined the stages of market action typically observed in the lead-up to the Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April.
The trader highlighted that in the months preceding previous Bitcoin halvings, there had often been a significant dip, resulting in substantial returns for investors. Despite BTC already undergoing an 18% retrace in January, Rekt Capital suggests that there is a two-week window for another substantial pullback, emphasizing it as potentially one of the final opportunities for bargain-buying in the pre-halving period.
Bitcoin’s Pre-Halving Surge: Awaiting the Countdown Catalyst
Rekt Capital’s analysis places Bitcoin on the brink of a “pre-halving rally” phase, occurring approximately 60 days before the halving event. During this period, short-term traders aim to capitalize on the hype surrounding the impending halving, only to “sell the news” around the actual halving date. Historical data supports this pattern, with notable price dips, such as the 38% drop in 2016 and the 20% drawdown in 2020, occurring in the weeks leading up to the halving.
Following a successful halving, Rekt Capital anticipates a prolonged period of relatively stagnant price action, lasting around 150 days, where disappointed investors may be shaken out. Subsequently, Bitcoin is expected to enter the “parabolic uptrend” phase, characterized by accelerated growth after months of consolidation.
While Rekt Capital’s analysis revolves around the halving as a key factor influencing BTC’s price action, not all experts are in agreement. Some, such as Swan Bitcoin’s Chief Investment Officer Ralph Zagury, argue that the halving is becoming less useful as a metric for judging price movements. Zagury emphasizes the importance of liquidity over the halving, stating that flows play a more integral role in impacting Bitcoin’s price in 2024.
As Bitcoin investors weigh these perspectives, the looming two-week window may represent a crucial decision point. Whether influenced by the anticipated pre-halving rally or broader market dynamics, potential buyers are advised to consider the evolving landscape before making investment decisions in the volatile world of cryptocurrency.