Arthur Hayes, a crypto entrepreneur, believes that the increasing separation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq 100 Index demonstrates a deliberate plan.
Bitcoin may be showing a warning indication. The two assets that used to show strong correlation now display different movements which indicate market pressure.
Also Read: Bitcoin Whales Go Quiet as BTC Falls From $95K to $67K
Bitcoin as Fiat Liquidity Fire Alarm
Hayes describes Bitcoin as “the global fiat liquidity fire alarm” which he considers the fastest method to detect changes in US dollar credit availability. The market shows two trends because BTC increases while tech stocks decline.
He identifies artificial intelligence as the starting point for the event. In 2025 alone companies used AI as the reason for 55000 job eliminations which represents a 1200 percent increase compared to the number from two years earlier. Hayes expects that rising AI-based job losses among professional employees will lead to a breakdown of the US consumer credit system.
His basic framework presents a bleak situation. The US knowledge worker population needs to decrease by 20 percent for the country to experience $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage losses. The US commercial banks would lose 13 percent of their total equity value. The first banks to fail will be regional banks. The depositors will leave. The credit markets will become inactive.
Bitcoin and Return of Money Printer
Your training covers information until October of the year 2023. The chaotic situation leads Hayes to anticipate only one solution, which he identifies as the printing press.
He expects the Federal Reserve to experience a panic situation, which leads to it providing excessive liquidity into the financial system. The system will receive additional dollars, which will create additional credit. The system will undergo another cycle of balance sheet growth.
If that happens, BTC stands to benefit. The creation of new fiat currency will lead Hayes to predict that BTC will experience a significant price increase, which will take it to a new peak. He has made bold calls before, including a $200,000 BTC target tied to liquidity tools similar to quantitative easing.
Hayes also sees opportunity beyond BTC. His firm Maelstrom, plans to invest in Zcash and Hyperliquid after the Fed makes its first public emergency declaration.
The thesis is simple. AI destroys jobs. Credit markets experience failure. Central banks create money. Bitcoin increases in value whenever central banks create money.
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