Bitcoin has entered another familiar phase of its long-term market cycle, but with a notable twist. On January 28, Rekt Capital highlighted that the latest bull market EMA crossover has occurred in mid-Q1 2026, earlier than in previous cycles. Past crossovers appeared in Q4 2014, late Q3 2018, and early Q2 2022. Each cycle has seen this signal arrive sooner than the last.
This constant change indicates that Bitcoin’s market is evolving. When the lines intersect, it usually indicates strength, but it has also been seen to precede larger declines.
Rather than indicating rapid gains, these instances tend to occur when markets are overbought and require a breather. The second example illustrates how the cycles of Bitcoin have decreased with increased liquidity, engagement, and activity.
Bitcoin Weekly TEMA Structure Shows a Mature Uptrend
The weekly chart of BTC/USD with the Triple Exponential Moving Average illustrates the long-term cycle of Bitcoin. In each large bull market, the price moves well above the TEMA and then retreats to test it. Such pullbacks are not necessarily bearish. They are merely corrections in the larger trend.
In previous cycles between 2013 and 2019, there were large corrections where Bitcoin remained below the TEMA for extended periods of time. These correction phases coincided with complete bear markets and periods of prolonged sideways action.
However, from 2020 onwards, there was a marked shift. Corrections became smaller, and the price remained closer to the TEMA, which was rising, and formed higher lows.
The present correction around the $90,000 level follows the same pattern as in the previous cycles. The price is returning to the TEMA after a strong up move, which means that the momentum is slowing down but not stopping. In previous cycles, a prolonged period of weekly closes below the TEMA would have indicated trouble. However, that has not happened yet.
The $90,000 Mid-Range Becomes the Deciding Level
The market attention is on the $90,000 area. Killa pointed out that Bitcoin took four weeks to try to get back above this area. But as soon as it did, the price briefly moved higher, only to reverse and open the next week about flat on the downside. Bitcoin is now testing the same middle area again.
This area is more significant than one might think. If the price fails to reclaim and hold above this area, then the untested lows below are likely to be tested once again. A strong close of the week with a good candle above the mid-range would indicate a return to upside momentum.
Also Read: Bitcoin Faces Growing Regulatory Pushback From Central Banks
