Wintermute’s 2025 annual report highlights a significant shift in how capital moved through crypto markets last year. While liquidity entered the sector, it largely remained concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other large-cap assets. The widely anticipated rotation into altcoins failed to materialize.
But Wintermute’s own OTC flow data shows altcoin rallies were shorter and weaker this year: lasting around 20 days on average compared with 60 days in 2024. Even new ideas such as memecoin launchpads, AI tokens, and perpetual decentralized exchanges rose fast and fell just as quickly, showing shorter investor interest cycles.
ETFs and DATs helped cause this concentration by serving as channels of liquidity to the big tokens and keeping much of the flow from moving into smaller tokens. Wintermute also notes that as ETFs and DATs expanded, so did liquidity, but without broad rotation, the altcoins couldn’t keep up with lasting momentum.
Derivatives Take Center Stage in 2025
In 2025, options and other derivatives proliferated. OTC trading volumes and number of trades more than doubled from the year before. The systematic strategies utilized to manage risk and seek returns dominated over single bets on price direction.
And OTC execution became more critical as traders underlined planning, certainty, and efficiency. Top market assets are acting more like steady investments, shows data from Wintermute, with trades becoming increasingly methodical and less driven by short-term stories.
Four-Year Crypto Cycle Loses Influence
The report highlights, among other things, that the classic four-year crypto cycle is becoming less and less relevant. Instead of following the timing narrative, the 2025 market results were dictated by the concentration of liquidity and investor attention. It was the concentration that determined performance, not the cycles.
Wintermute speculates that there might be a change in the next year if ETFs and DATs expand their mandates, if BTC and ETH perform strongly enough to generate a wealth effect, or if retail mindshare turns from equities back to crypto.
Also Read: Financial Advisors Double Down on Crypto as 99% Plan to Increase Exposure in 2026
