- A drop in Bitcoin hashrate in the past indicated miner capitulation and decreased selling pressure.
- According to the VanEck Report, post-capitulation periods have coincided with price recoveries in BTC in the past.
- During periods when the hashrate of Bitcoin decreases, there has often been an upward trend in its price over the next six months.
The Bitcoin (BTC) network has seen a sharp drop in its hashrate, and analysts believe it is a sign of future price gains. In the last month, statistics indicate that this decrease was approximately 4%, the most significant of the year. It has been steepest since April 2024.
Miners Capitulation Is A Sign Of Bullish Bitcoin Bottoms
VanEck analysts believe that the consistent decrease in hashrate is a positive indicator for Bitcoin based on history. Hashrate is used to determine the total computational power required to protect the network.
As hashrate decreases, weaker miners turn off their machines due to higher costs, a process called miner capitulation. It is common at market bottoms.
According to research by VanEck, BTC is more likely to rise after falling. A 90-day hashrate reduction has contributed to 65% returns since 2014, compared with 54% during periods of hashrate increases.
The signal strength is even higher over extended periods. When 90-day growth in hashrates was negative, BTC was up 77% of the time over 180 days and averaged a gain of approximately 72%.
According to analysts, the pressure on the networks increases and pushes unproductive miners out. Thus, resettling the market and eliminating the incentive for miners to move their BTC holdings for selling purposes.
Source: VanEck
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Miner Exits Decrease Selling Pressure
Miners often sell Bitcoin to cover various expenses, such as electricity and operational costs. Hence, forced selling is usually slowed when the unprofitable miners leave.
Such a change will help sustain the price recovery, provided there’s stable demand. The current situation in mining shows increasing stress across the industry.
The breakeven price of electricity for the popular S19 XP mining rig has fallen drastically. According to VanEck, breakeven costs are down almost 36% over the last year.
This indicates declining profit margins for most operators. Some of the recent hashrate reduction seems to be associated with China. VanEck analysts estimate about 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity that have recently been forced out of operations.
Source: VanEck
A portion of that energy is being directed towards artificial intelligence data centers. VanEck also cautioned that rising AI demand could eliminate up to 10% of Bitcoin’s hashrate.
Bitcoin Mining Prospects Empowered by Nation-States
Nevertheless, Bitcoin mining has the support of governments all over the world. VanEck approximates that up to 13 countries are facilitating Bitcoin mining.
These are Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran and El Salvador. The others are the UAE, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya and Japan.
Source: VanEck
The price of Bitcoin is still approximately 30% lower than its all-time high. According to analysts, this background is why hashrate signals are becoming more important to investors.
History shows that miner stress has been the forerunner of substantial rebounds. Reduction in competition will enhance profitability for surviving miners. They can also get their offline machines back online once the BTC price starts going up.
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