Solana has taken the lead in the midst of a bullish market, attracting increased investor interest and defying the odds that the bear market threw at it. Kunal Goel, Senior Research Analyst at MessariCrypto, recently delved into Solana’s tokenomics to unravel its value and potential pathways to further success.
Acknowledging the Solana team’s and community’s resilience, Goel commended their ability to withstand the challenges of the bear market. Despite narratives working against them, SOL has not only weathered the storm but has emerged stronger, establishing itself as the home for DePIN apps. The platform has also announced several exciting partnerships, including a notable collaboration with Visa, dispelling any lingering doubts over its narrative.
Moving on to evaluating Solana’s value, Goel emphasized the inherent difficulty in valuing Layer-1 tokens but outlined potential scenarios based on specific assumptions.
In Scenario 1, if the cost of transactions is fixed, the analysis reveals that Solana would require an astounding 13 billion non-vote transactions daily or approximately 150,000 non-vote transactions per second (TPS) to achieve a net 0% inflation. However, the current network capacity falls short of supporting such a high transaction volume.
Projecting Solana’s Needs In 2030
Looking ahead to Scenario 2 in 2030, with the launch of Firedancer and a gross inflation rate of 1.5%, Solana would need around 50,000 non-vote TPS to maintain zero net inflation. It, Goel notes, is only achievable through the widespread adoption of high-throughput applications like social media, payments, trading, or DePIN.
Alternatively, the analysis explores the transaction activity required to support different SOL prices at zero net inflation by fixing the fee per transaction in dollar terms. Under Scenario 2 growth (approximately 50,000 non-vote TPS), Solana could potentially support a price of $500. At current activity levels, the platform can sustain a price of $5 with net zero inflation.
Adding to the positive momentum, Santiment reported that Solana experienced another surge in market value over the weekend. Traders successfully pushed prices above $60 for the first time since May 2022, with a noticeable increase in FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). According to Santiment, positivity around $SOL is now at its highest level over a year.