Legal analyst Jeremy Hogan, a well-known attorney, recently shared his insights on Twitter regarding the Ripple vs. SEC case. According to Hogan’s analysis, it is unlikely that a resolution will be reached by 2027 due to recent developments in the case. In a series of tweets, Hogan clarifies the confusion surrounding the case’s progress following the Judge’s denial of an interlocutory appeal. He outlines various potential scenarios and evaluates their likelihood and timeline for occurrence.
A Deep Dive into 3 Possible Outcomes for Ripple v. SEC
Firstly, Hogan discusses the option where the SEC proceeds with the trial against the individual Defendants in April. He assigns a 39.456% probability to this scenario. The Judge’s ruling has left the most challenging aspects of the case for trial, thereby exposing the SEC to potentially unfavorable outcomes.
If this course of action is chosen, an appeal may not be lodged until 2025, and an appellate ruling is anticipated in 2026. Even if the SEC emerges victorious on appeal, further litigation could prolong the resolution of this case until June 14, 2027.
Another possibility is for the SEC to settle with the individual Defendants and focus on obtaining a Final Judgment against Ripple before appealing. Hogan gives this option a 32.113% chance of happening.
Settling with the individual Defendants could expedite the case by approximately 9-12 months, saving resources and avoiding a challenging trial. However, remedies litigation would still require significant time, potentially extending the case to August 14, 2026.
The third option involves the SEC settling all litigation against both Ripple and the individual Defendants, with a chance of 18.987%. While settlement is a favorable choice for the SEC, it remains uncertain if they are inclined to compromise. This option would allow the SEC to claim a “win” and collect a substantial settlement, as the Judge clarified that her ruling applied specifically to XRP-related facts.
Hogan acknowledges that unforeseen developments could occur, with an 8.675% chance of an alternative outcome. Regardless of the chosen path, the Summary Judgment stands as the current legal standard, unlikely to change before 2026 at the earliest.
Nevertheless, the outcome of the Ripple vs. SEC case still hangs uncertain in the balance. Hogan’s suggestion emphasizes that the SEC needs to carefully assess its options, each carrying its own set of risks and timelines. Meanwhile, within the cryptocurrency community, as well as among investors, there is anxious anticipation for a final resolution to this ongoing legal battle.
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