Tesla is in focus as a widening split among analysts emerges, with the stock trading near $359 after a roughly 20% decline in 2026 and an additional 2.15% drop in recent trading, as of Tuesday, April 7.
The stock had previously peaked just under $499 in December, driven by optimism surrounding robotaxi developments, but sentiment has since cooled as investors reassess growth expectations and execution risks.
Source: Bloomingbit
A cautious stance from JPMorgan has intensified concerns. Analyst Ryan Brinkman warned that the stock could fall by as much as 60% from current levels, following weaker-than-expected delivery data and declining financial projections.
At the same time, CEO Elon Musk continues to highlight 2026 as a pivotal year centered on autonomy and robotics.
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Tesla’s stock outlook weakens as expectations fall further
Tesla’s performance expectations have shifted sharply over recent years. Delivery forecasts for the first quarter once peaked in mid-2022 but have since declined significantly.
Earnings per share estimates illustrate the change. Current projections stand at $0.30 per share, compared with earlier expectations of $3.68. This steep drop signals reduced confidence in Tesla’s near-term profitability.
Long-term projections have also weakened. Estimates for 2030 earnings are now about 38% lower than they were in 2022. Analysts view this as evidence that future growth may take longer to materialize than previously expected.
Tesla’s robotaxi expansion increases costs and pressure
Tesla is rapidly accelerating the journey toward complete automation. In fact, one robotaxi is due to hit production lines this month, followed by a humanoid robot sometime later this year. Meanwhile, plans call for expanding the network of ride-sharing vehicles to cover not just two U.S. locations but nine by June.
These actions have become increasingly expensive. According to analysts, 2026 will mark the costliest year for the firm thus far. Slow-moving sales are putting pressure on free cash flows.
In terms of production, there is reason for concern. The company produced 50,000 more cars than it delivered during the latest quarter. It delivered 358,023 vehicles, which was below analyst forecasts but better than the previous weak performance.
Tesla’s energy slowdown and price targets create a mixed outlook
The energy division of Tesla delivered yet another shocker, reporting deployment levels that were 39% lower than anticipated, even after consecutive quarters of expansion.
There is disagreement on how to evaluate the stock. While one analyst reduced the target price from $548 to $538 on account of some weakness in the short term, another remains optimistic about the stock and sees the decline as an opportunity to accumulate shares with a $510 target price.
This is reflective of the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the stock, with future performance dependent on whether it can use the advantages it has in AI and robotics to justify its valuation.
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