David Schwartz who developed the XRP Ledger together with Ripple executives has confirmed that current XRP prices will not reach triple-digit values. Schwartz used a social media platform to prove the belief that XRP will hit $50 or $100 within the upcoming short-term future is incorrect.
He presents a straightforward argument which uses market principles as its foundation. Investors would start buying Ripple tokens because “smart money” investors think the price will increase by 50 times. They would market their products before others had the chance to buy. They would acquire all available products. They would never market their Ripple holdings for prices lower than $10.
According to Schwartz, if rational investors considered the 10% probability that XRP would reach $100 within a few years to be real, then its current market value would show major changes. High-conviction buyers would have already cornered the market. Cheap altcoins would be scarce. The token remains available for trade at prices which show that most investors do not believe it will reach the $10 threshold.
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XRP Price Hype vs Market Reality
Social media influencers in the crypto space have established aggressive prices for the altcoin which include targets of $589 and $1000 and higher. Schwartz disputed this story by showing that market prices now disprove these assertions.
He stated that investors who think XRP will reach $100 should invest their money according to that belief. The fact that the altcoin trades far under $10 shows that only a small fraction of people truly believe in such a dramatic upside.
Schwartz explained that everyone who claims different things is actually making false statements. People use markets to demonstrate their shared beliefs about future events. The current price of the asset demonstrates doubt among market participants instead of providing them with actual information.
Ripple trades at approximately $1.76 which represents a 51.7% decline from its highest price six months ago. Schwartz believes that the actual gap has more significance than any promotional material.
XRP and Unpredictable Nature of Crypto
The price targets which Schwartz criticized as too extreme made him recognize that cryptocurrencies operate outside of rational market behaviour. He admitted that his own price predictions have been wrong before.
He sold his XRP at $0.10 because he believed the price would never reach $0.25. He also remembered when Bitcoin hitting $100 seemed impossible.
Schwartz considers $100 Ripple tokens to be an unlikely outcome but he still stops short of calling it an impossible outcome. In crypto, logic establishes base expectations, but unexpected events continue to occur.
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