- XRP hovers near critical monthly and weekly support levels, signaling potential trend shifts.
- Exchange reserves on Binance hit their lowest since July 2024, suggesting reduced selling pressure.
- A break below $1.95 could trigger a decline toward $1.60, while a rebound may lift XRP toward $2.70.
XRP is approaching a decisive moment on its monthly chart, where losing the trend ribbon has historically signaled strong bearish momentum. In past cycles, such as 2018 and 2022, when the token fell below this long-term trend indicator, the results were severe: the cryptocurrency experienced drops of –65% and –54%, respectively.
The trend ribbon acts as a momentum filter over months, where staying above it indicates a bullish regime, while dropping below flips momentum into a bearish stance.
Currently, the token hovers at this key level. A confirmed monthly close beneath the trend ribbon could mark the start of a broader downtrend, following historical precedent. Investors and traders are watching closely, as such a shift could set the tone for the coming months.
Weekly Chart Hints at Short-Term Pressure
On the weekly chart, XRP continues to face pressure. The token is currently below the downtrend line and also below the 8-week and 21-week EMAs, indicating weak market performance. Currently, it is testing support at the zone of $1.95, which corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 89-week EMA. The zone has been holding firm since the start of the year.
If the token closes below $1.95 for the week, traders would prepare for a further decline towards $1.60, nearing the 0.618 Fibonacci level. If $1.95 is breached and it closes in the green, buyers would step in, taking the token towards $2.30 and potentially reaching $2.70.
XRP Exchange Reserves Hit Multi-Month Low
In spite of the current price pressures, the supply dynamic of XRP appears to be potentially positive. The exchange holdings of Binance’s XRP reserves are down to 2.66 billion, which is the lowest since July 2024. The reduction of XRP holdings on exchanges means that the long-term holders of XRP are taking the coins off the exchanges and into self-custody.
Less available in the exchanges, coupled with robust support at $1.80, may indicate that there is a potential supply shock. As the pressure from sales continues to ease, it is likely that XRP will remain in or around this region and form a foundation for potential upside.
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