The recent drop in the crypto market has put holders of XRP in a nervous state. In fact, the price of the token has even reflected a 50% crash scenario of 2022. The price of XRP on Monday was approximately $1.64, which is more than 20% down in the past week and is significantly lower than the cost basis of purchasers over the last 12 months.
New Buyers Face Losses
Ripple’s price is currently slightly higher than its aggregated realized price of about $1.48, which reflects the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation.
This means that the majority of recent buyers of Ripple are already at a loss, making the short-term downside risk even higher. A strong move below $1.48 would certainly make the average holder a loser, which is a scenario very similar to the 2022 bear phase.
Also Read: XRP Weekly Pullback Intensifies, Resistance Zone at $2.20–$2.30 Remains Crucial
Whale Selling and Stablecoin Outflows
According to data from CryptoQuant, whale flows in XRP over 90 days have been net negative, with the large holders apparently selling their holdings instead of accumulating. Moreover, the stablecoin flows into exchanges turned sharply negative at the end of 2025, with the 30-day net outflows amounting to approximately $9.6 billion.
Also Read: Ripple Approaches Critical Support as Analysts Eye $3.50
Technical Analysis
The price of Ripple is shown on the charts as having been supported on its 100, 2W exponential moving average (100, 2W EMA) at around $1.43, which is very close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48. The 100, 2W EMA has been acting as a strong support level, with the price bouncing off of it several times.
Ripple could be on its way to a serious sell-off if it breaks this key support. In that case, it will most likely head down to the 200, 2W EMA, which is around $1, reminiscent of the kind of breakdown that followed similar support losses in 2022.
Also Read: Could Ripple Finally Earn Yield for Institutions? Evernorth Says Yes
