Bitcoin is poised for the next bull run in 2023, well-known trader Moustache tweeted, based on the analysis of the crucial trendline, the 20-month SMA, which is used to gauge the long-term trajectory of a stock or other security while disregarding the noise of daily price changes.
Historically, if a monthly candle remains above the 20-month SMA line, the following candles will likewise close above it until the cycle peak, a trend clearly seen in the below graph except for the year 2022. The analyst commented,
Imagine being bearish, while BTC holds above the monthly 20 SMA-line. Once Bitcoin has closed above it, it has NEVER AGAIN fallen below it, until the cycle top. This is exactly how it was in 2016-2018 and 2019-2021.
Another classic bull market behavior was seen among “older” BTC investors. In a recent tweet, Philip Swift, creator of on-chain data resource LookIntoBitcoin, said long-term holders are coming back to life as the BTC price increases.
There might be divergent views on how far the price of Bitcoin could go given the current market cycle, but one thing is certain: Hodler’s actions remain consistent. BTC/USD more than doubling in 2023 has caused a significant increase in on-chain spending velocity, which is a sign of profit-taking behavior.
Swift illustrated this point with a graph of the Value Days Destroyed [VDD] Multiple, arguing that the present cycle is identical to all prior ones in this respect. “Increased on-chain spending volume shows where we are in the cycle right now.”
Bitcoin’s Euphoria Might Subside, But There’s A Catch
When it comes to price, BTC has been stuck in the range of $29.8k to $31.5k since June 23. The crypto slipped below the $31k level following waning investors’ euphoria and regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds that could drive the token below the $29k level, which was last seen on June 21.
Despite the decline, certain aspects need to be considered. First, after almost 10 attempts since April of this year, the price of Bitcoin is still trying to establish the $30,000 level as support. Additionally, the $28,000 to $25,000 price range, which these purchasers appear to view as an accumulation zone, is where the pricing frequently attracts buyers.