Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has unveiled a bold prediction for Bitcoin’s near future, suggesting that historical trends indicate the cryptocurrency won’t surpass its four-year cycle resistance at approximately $46,000 until after the upcoming Halving event. Despite a recent recovery, Rekt Capital emphasizes that history still points to Bitcoin facing challenges breaking beyond this Macro Diagonal resistance in the Pre-Halving period.
Commenting on the forecast, users in the crypto community shared interesting insights. One user highlighted, “Fun fact…. the last 3 cycles BTC price at the halving event was always at 50% of the last top. Let’s see if it plays out the same.” Another user agreed, stating, “Based on the history of cycles, we can say that in these 4 candles, we will see a shadow at the end of the year at the bottom. And it is from what values it will go – this will be the correction of BTC.”
5 distinct phases of The Bitcoin Halving:
- Pre-Halving Period [Phase 1]: With roughly 77 days remaining until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024, this phase often sees deeper retraces that historically generate good returns on investment for investors in the months following the Halving. A recent -18% retrace in January is highlighted, and Rekt Capital emphasizes a rapidly shrinking 14-day window for a potential asset pullback.
- Pre-Halving Rally: Roughly 60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur in anticipation of the event. Short-term traders and speculators engage in “Buy The Hype” actions, leading to a profit-driven sell-off just weeks before the Halving event.
- Pre-Halving Retrace: Taking place a couple of weeks before the Halving, this phase involves a retrace. In 2016, it was -38%, and in 2020, -20%. This retrace can last multiple weeks, causing investors to question the bullish impact of the Halving.
- Re-Accumulation: Following the Pre-Halving retrace is a multi-month re-accumulation period. Lasting up to 150 days [5 months], this stage often sees investors getting shaken out due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment.
- Parabolic Uptrend: The final phase involves a breakout from the re-accumulation area into a parabolic uptrend. Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new All-Time Highs.
As the crypto community eagerly awaits the unfolding of these predicted phases, Rekt Capital’s analysis provides a comprehensive roadmap for understanding potential market movements in the coming months.