Again Bitcoin (BTC) is definitely feeling the weight of the pressure. However, this time the source of the warning is Peter Brandt, a trader who has the knack of predicting market tops and bottoms with cold accuracy. Brandt is not raising his voice. He is not taking a more cautious approach. He is just showing the picture and letting it do the talking.
Brandt is of the opinion that the price of BTC might dip to the range between $58,000 and $62,000. The number would imply a whopping 40% correction from where the market was just recently. Such a drop would definitely not be good for a market whose foundation is built on trust.
Brandt points out a chart that, while showing BTC’s uptrend, has already begun to signal a downward move. In other words, the chart, if you will, speaks of exhaustion, false hope, and the risk of things yet to come.
Source: BTC Price Prediction: Bitcoin at Decision Zone Between $91K and $95K
Bitcoin and Bearish Megaphone Pattern
Bitcoin’s current pattern looks like a broadening top or megaphone pattern. It features higher highs and lower lows, which is not a strong signal. It is, rather, a sign of market uncertainty.
The trend changed abruptly when BTC declined to break support at its lower trendline. Then the market price went up quickly to approximately $102,000. Brandt refers to this movement as a bearish retest. It gave the impression of being robust. It was not.
After that rejection, BTC has been operating within a narrow, upward channel, which is a typical bear flag. The current price is testing the lower barrier which is around $92,000. Should this level go, Brandt’s next target is around $73,786, then $63,254. His chart indicates that the last support level below is at $58,840.
Brandt has clarity about the risk involved in the future direction of the market. He acknowledges frequently being on the wrong side. However, the point he is making is that one should always be in control of risk.
Bitcoin and Quantum Computing Question
Brandt is voicing a concern that is more profound than just the charts. He poses a question over whether Bitcoin could be going up indefinitely. He argues that the very core of this belief is based on the assumption that technological development would not take place. That assumption is definitely not true.
It is already anticipated that quantum computing will ultimately pose a threat to the cryptographic systems that are in place today. BTC is built on the foundations of the present day and may need to be very defensive years later against the machines of the future.
The threat is, at present, only a theory. Yet, the market is always a step ahead and thus prices fear before it becomes a reality.
Bitcoin has managed to live on past predictions but not this one as it has both the technical side and the existential question attached to it. The next few months will be crucial in determining which of the two narratives prevails.
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