- Bitcoin trades at $100,630 after a 7% daily and 13% weekly drop amid softening inflows.
- ETF outflows of $617M and fading institutional demand show waning market liquidity.
- On-chain activity hints at steady accumulation but without strong conviction.
Bitcoin continued to move sideways this week, showing mixed signals between improving momentum and weakening capital inflows. According to Glassnode’s latest market report, the leading cryptocurrency held steady but failed to push above the short-term holder cost basis, a key level that usually reflects near-term investor sentiment.
Momentum indicators improved modestly, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising to 55.7, signaling firmer short-term strength without overheating.
However, spot trading volumes dropped 11.4% to $10.9 billion, suggesting that enthusiasm among retail traders and short-term investors remains muted. Spot CVD showed slight improvement as selling pressure eased, but overall activity in the market continued to decline.
In derivatives, conditions turned softer. Futures CVD dropped sharply to -$789.6 million, reflecting renewed selling pressure. Options open interest fell 7.7% to $49.2 billion, while the 25-Delta Skew rose to 9.17%, showing that traders are increasingly hedging downside risks.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Signal Weak Institutional Participation
Exchange-traded fund data revealed another weak spot in Bitcoin’s market structure. ETFs recorded $617.2 million in outflows over the week, highlighting a phase of profit-taking and reduced institutional appetite.
While ETF volumes stayed stable around $24.6 billion, the lack of new inflows underscores a broader trend of cautious sentiment among long-term investors.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio eased to 2.05, indicating that unrealized profits are shrinking. This trend aligns with a phase of market consolidation rather than active distribution.
Meanwhile, the Percent Supply in Profit dropped to 84%, reflecting lower overall profitability among holders, typically a condition associated with early accumulation periods.
On-Chain Data Reflects Shaky Confidence
On-chain metrics paint a picture of a market in quiet transition. Active addresses climbed slightly to 687,000, while total transfer volumes jumped 27.6% to $11.1 billion, suggesting some renewed activity despite a slight dip in fee volumes.
The Realized Cap Change rose by 3.5%, signaling that some investors continue to accumulate despite fading profitability.
Market data shared by Teddy, a well-known crypto researcher, revealed that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization growth is losing steam. His chart showed Strength_RC_60d hovering near zero, meaning there are no strong inflow impulses, while the ZTrend_RC_180d remains below zero, a sign that the long-term trend continues to weaken.
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