In a bold prediction, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas, and James Seyffart, have announced an increased likelihood of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) launching this year. The experts estimate the probability of such a launch at a substantial 75% for 2023, with expectations soaring even higher to an impressive 95% by the close of 2024.
The duo’s confidence stems from the recent developments surrounding grayscale judgments, which have surpassed initial expectations regarding decisiveness and consensus. Balchunas emphasized that this heightened certainty has left the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with “very little wiggle room” to maneuver.
Balchunas took to Twitter to declare their revised projections. In his tweet, he explained that the unanimous and assertive nature of the recent rulings had exceeded their earlier predictions of a 65% likelihood. It, coupled with the substantial media coverage from reputable outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and more, has significantly impacted the narrative surrounding Bitcoin ETFs.
The analysts also factored in the potential public relations backlash that the SEC could face in the event of a denial. They argue that the combined weight of the legal and PR implications could render the denial of a Bitcoin spot ETF politically unviable.
Bitcoin ETF Launch Confidence Amid SEC Delay Speculation
As inquiries flood in about potential deadlines, Balchunas and Seyffart remain open to the possibility of an SEC delay, considering the recency of the pivotal rulings. Nonetheless, the analysts anticipate that timelines might become less relevant as they foresee a scenario where the SEC capitulates and paves the way for imminent launches.
Seyffart, echoing his colleague’s sentiments, conveyed similar predictions on Twitter. He underscored the near-certainty of a Bitcoin spot ETF launch by the close of 2024, further reinforcing the analysts’ confidence in their projections.
Regarding other ETF applications, the experts anticipate delay orders for numerous applications this week. They deem rapid approvals unlikely, especially in the wake of recent court decisions. However, they point out that certain novel approaches, like that of Hashdex’s unique spot Bitcoin exposure in $DEFI, could be difficult for the SEC to deny, further bolstering their optimism for 2024.
Despite this optimism, Balchunas and Seyffart maintain a cautious stance, acknowledging the possibility of unforeseen developments that might affect their projections. Nonetheless, their confident prediction paints a promising picture for the potential launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the near future.
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