- Bitcoin targets $117K as technical and on-chain signals align for breakout.
- STH cost basis and MVRV ratio support a bullish setup, with a bubble top near $123K.
- Key resistance at $110K; breaking it may trigger a surge to $130K.
Bitcoin is indicating a potential breakout after months of consolidation, aided by a convergence of on-chain metrics and technical chart patterns. The flagship cryptocurrency has been range-bound in a well-defined $78,000 to $110,000 trading range since January, with momentum now building for a potential explosion to new highs.
According to data released by TradingView and on-chain data firm Glassnode, such a corridor of trades is primarily decided by Bitcoin holders’ Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base, which is the average buying price of holders that have entered in the last 155 days. The level establishes a dynamic resistance and support zone for Bitcoin’s movements in price.
The upper band of the STH cost basis was last touched in late May when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $112,000. Currently, this level sits at approximately $117,113, signaling a potential target zone if Bitcoin can gather enough momentum for a sustained rally.
The top end of the STH cost basis was last grazed in late May, when Bitcoin peaked near $112,000. Right now, that mark rests around $117,113, suggesting it could become a target if the coin builds the momentum needed for a real rally.
“This level can be seen as the upper band of the short-term price action,” Glassnode stated in a July 2 post on X, emphasizing that this metric offers a meaningful indicator for breakout confirmation.
Also, signifying the upward trend of a bullish tone is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which tells us if Bitcoin is more expensive now compared to the historical cost only. The MVRV analyst model has the bubble at $123,000, which means Bitcoin can still rally a bit further before being in the “overbought” phase.
Bitcoin Near Breakout: $110K Test Critical
Technically, Bitcoin has moved up to a multi-month descending trendline and is now retracing it. The leading cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has designated the zone at $109,000 as a very important inflection point.
Also Read: Bitcoin Market Boom: What’s Behind the $108,542 Price and HODLing Shift?
“Before Bitcoin finally breaks out, how many more rejections can be expected with the daily downtrend line?” Rekt Capital mentioned, implying that the resistance might be disappearing after several trials.
A daily close above the trendline and then a retest that maintains the pricing of the support point is expected to be the confirmation of the bullish breakout, and the forecast will be that the increase of the target beyond $117,000 will be justified.
Following the same idea, another analyst, Jelle, also confirmed that a classic bullish flag pattern is being formed on the daily chart. If the breakout happens, meaning it is above the top of the flag at the level of $110,000, the movement can reach $130,000. This is the level that has not been in the price forecast of BTC until now.
While traders remain guarded, market sentiment is gradually turning bullish. With on-chain indications coming in harmony and technical resistance levels softening, BTC is apparently gearing up for its next massive move. If the setup is kept intact, a push towards $117,000, and possibly beyond, is not too far a reality.
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