Bitcoin’s long-standing market structure has returned to focus after CryptoCon compared historical price behavior with the Global PMI business cycle indicator. The latest Bitcoin halving cycle analysis suggested that Bitcoin continues following its traditional four-year structure despite concerns that macroeconomic trends could replace the historical pattern after the October 2025 market peak.
The chart analyzed the highs and lows experienced by Bitcoin during its history relative to the Global PMI index.Data from the chart indicate that Bitcoin has retained its cyclicality during multiple cycles in the past sixteen years. According to the analysis, there has been very little influence of the business cycle on the major turning points of Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin Halving Cycle Maintains Historical Pattern
According to the Bitcoin halving cycle theory, Bitcoin tends to experience roughly three years of upward price action followed by a year of downward price action.
The process of halving reduces the creation of fresh units of Bitcoin, thus making it increasingly scarce over time. Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 have been followed by increased price surges about 12 to 18 months after the halving.
Source: X
In addition, the current market environment reflects the previous phase of consolidation after the halving event, rather than the top of a cycle.
The forecast went as far as 2026 and 2028, indicating anticipation for another substantial growth period prior to the onset of the next bear market cycle.
According to CryptoCon, during the period between 2022 and 2025, the Global PMI remained stable while Bitcoin continued with its expected Bitcoin halving cycle.
Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Shows Fresh Capital Entering
However, it was stated that the general business cycle is not the key issue; liquidity dynamics influence market momentum.
Additionally, it was pointed out that the relationship between the factors is less pronounced in 2024-2025 compared to the previous business cycles.
On the other hand, the new research on on-chain Bitcoin metrics by Alphractal revealed that the Realized Cap Impulse metric for Bitcoin became positive again after six weeks.
Source: Alphractal
The metric is an indication of the rate at which capital moves into the blockchain and not only changes in price. This new data is pointing to more fresh capital moving into the market, driven by $898 million in Bitcoin ETF flows in the past week.
When coupled with increased on-chain transactions and the Bitcoin halving cycle, the market appears to be in an expansion phase.
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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