Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin may peak in October 2025 if historical post-halving trends hold.
- A Fed rate cut and institutional presence could prolong this cycle’s strength.
- Global liquidity data suggests the final bull phase has begun but not peaked.
Bitcoin has always displayed a cyclical trajectory correlated with its halvings, and each prior peak has appeared approximately 18 months following the halving.
Analyst Ash Crypto cited this pattern and suggested we could expect a probable market peak in September or October of 2025, should the prior halving in April of 2024 hold as the reference point.
This is concurrent with market forecasts of the Federal Reserve cutting rates of interest, conventionally viewed as stimulating investment into risky assets like Bitcoin.
The current cycle is distinct from the past cycles in several ways. In comparison with past years, the Bitcoin price trajectory has been less volatile with less drawdown and an increasingly ascending slope.
It is possible the strength is the result of the rise of institutional investors such as ETFs and long-term investors. Rather than high speculative leaps, the bull run now appears to be more sustainable and contained.
Also Read: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $407 Million, Marking 16th Straight Day of Growth
Cycle Durations Are Stretching; Final Surge May Begin Soon
Crypto Caesar pointed out the growing time intervals between the halvings and their corresponding highs. In 2013, Bitcoin reached its high around 367 days after halving.
It occurred in 518 days during 2017 and by the year 2021 the maximum occurred roughly 548 days thereafter. Following this cycle, the next possible peak should then occur around day 546 of the April 2024 halving and accordingly fall in the month of October 2025.
This analyst believes the most explosive portion of the cycle has the potential of having its initiation approximately 100 days before the final peak. If so once again, then the start of the parabolic advance would be July of 2025 and the market is potentially about to begin its most volatile up leg.
Cycle lengthening is typically ascribed to higher participation at large, more matured infractions, and higher market capitalization and therefore inherently blunts sharp movements.
This could be the reason why the present cycle has been slower to gain impetus but could also lead to a higher and sustained peak.
Bitcoin Bull Market May Last Into Late 2025
CryptoCon offered another perspective by applying macro trends of liquidity and considering the world supply of money of M2. According to CryptoCon, each Bitcoin cycle has correlated with the world cash waves flowing into the economy.
This cycle is unusual in having already seen two big injections of liquidity, somewhat of an anomaly compared to earlier trends. The analyst says Bitcoin is now in cycle phase three, one typically leading to the final charge into the following high.
More importantly, the cycle peak does not come until world liquidity strength has been sharply reduced, and this still has not happened. This means the bull market could have several more months to go.
Also Read: Dormant Bitcoin Whale Moves $1.09 Billion: Is a Major Sell-Off Ahead?