Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer has projected that the current Bitcoin bear market may not reach its final bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with prices potentially falling between $42,000 and $44,000. The prediction was made based on Strategy’s mNAV ratio, which is a measure of corporate valuation becoming popular among crypto investors.
As stated by Jiang, Strategy’s mNAV ratio has fallen to 0.72, approaching the 0.7 mark that was observed during the previous market transition in May 2022. However, historical evidence shows that the metric tends to bottom out ahead of the BTC price. In the last cycle, the crypto coin kept falling months after the metric hit bottom.
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Bitcoin Miner Profitability Faces Growing Pressure
Mining income has been steadily falling for the past year, with the seven-day average falling to around $30 million daily compared to more than $50 million in the summer season. Transaction fees generate less than $250,000 per day, putting pressure on profitability from mining the blocks only.
According to industry data, about 20% of all miners are unprofitable at the current levels. The difficulty has fallen 10% in the second week of June, the second such fall of the year. Publicly-listed mining companies have sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter to finance their operations.
The reasons behind this development are important as miner capitulation has usually coincided with stress and volatility periods on the market. Meanwhile, at the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $60,792, dropping 3.17% in 24 hours, and the daily trading volume amounted to $47.37 billion. Investors will keep watching miner profitability, network difficulty, and institutional demand for any signs of recovery.
Bitcoin Miner Selling Pressures Market
Publicly-listed mining companies have largely relied on their reserves instead of making further cutbacks, selling more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter to cover their expenses. Such miner selling can help increase supply in the market and put even more pressure on the price in the already vulnerable market environment.
For the investors, Jiang’s forecast is indicative of the need to pay attention to both corporate Bitcoin valuation metrics and mining sector fundamentals.
While the macroeconomic trends, institutional demand, and ETF flows are playing an important role, the weakening miner profitability and sub-cost price mean that the market bottom is still months away.
The ability of increasing demand to offset the industry stress will play an important role in determining whether if Bitcoin reaches the anticipated late-2026 cycle low projected by the veteran Bitcoin Miner.
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