- Bitcoin recovery stalls below key resistance at $83,500, with bulls struggling to gain momentum above the 100-hour SMA.
- A decisive break above $83,500 could open the door to $84,500–$86,000, but failure to clear this zone may keep BTC range-bound.
- Analyst Ali Martinez says reclaiming $90,570 the short-term holder realized price is the signal for a resumed bull run.
Bitcoin (BTC) faced intensified selling pressure earlier this week, falling below a crucial support zone near $82,500 and briefly testing the $81,200 level. While the flagship cryptocurrency has since shown signs of recovery, it remains at a critical juncture caught between resistance above and looming downside risk below.
The latest dip marks a continuation of a broader pullback that began after BTC hit a swing high of $89,042. During the decline, Bitcoin formed a short-term bottom near $81,200 and has since managed to stage a modest recovery. The bounce lifted the price back above the $82,200 and $82,500 resistance levels, sparking optimism that buyers may be regaining control.
BTC even managed to break above the $83,000 mark, briefly testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the $89,042 high to the $81,177 low. Despite this, bulls have struggled to maintain upward momentum.
Bitcoin Below 100 Hour SMA as Bulls Face Major Hurdle
As of now, Bitcoin is trading below $82,850 and remains under the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key technical indicator that often acts as resistance during downtrends. The immediate hurdle lies near the $83,200 level, with a more significant barrier at $83,500. This level aligns with both horizontal resistance and a bearish trend line forming on the hourly BTC/USD chart, reinforcing its importance in the near term.
A break and close above $83,500 could act as a trigger for further gains, potentially driving BTC to $84,500. If momentum builds, the next targets would be $85,500 and $86,000, the latter representing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downturn.
However, if bulls fail to push past $83,500, the recovery could fizzle. On the downside, the first area of support sits at $82,200. A break below this could see the price revisiting the $81,200 level. Deeper losses may bring BTC down to $80,500, with $80,000 acting as a psychological support. The final major cushion sits at $78,800, a zone that could serve as a last line of defense in case of a steeper correction.
Bitcoin Reclaim $90,570 to Resume Bull Run
Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez also weighed in, pointing to a much higher level as the signal for a renewed bull run. According to Martinez:
“The first signal that Bitcoin is ready to resume its bull run is reclaiming the short-term holder realized price at $90,570.”
This level, well above current prices, represents the average cost basis of short-term holders and often serves as a battleground between conviction and capitulation.
With Bitcoin trading in a tight range and facing strong resistance overhead, the next move could set the tone for the coming days. However, near-term volatility is likely to persist as BTC navigates key levels and traders weigh whether the correction has bottomed or if more pain lies ahead.
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