Bitcoin is moving sideways, but the calm hides growing strain. Since bouncing from the $60,000 zone in early February, price action has remained locked between $60K and $69K.
This narrow band reflects a fragile balance. Sellers appear exhausted near support, yet buyers lack urgency above resistance.
According to a Glassnode report from February 25, time may be the most significant risk factor at this point. Bitcoin is currently down 47.3% from its all-time high, based on a 7-day moving average.
Source: Glassnode
This is comparable to the situation in May 2022, before the price decline. In the past, when Bitcoin has been range-bound at such low levels, it has often led to more pain, not relief.
If the price fails to reclaim above $70K in the coming weeks, the prospects of further pain will increase. Leverage has largely been reset, but market confidence is still lacking.
Bitcoin Supply Showing High Loss Exposure
The depth of the market is represented by supply figures. Approximately 9.2 million BTC are in loss when considering the 7-day moving average of the total supply.
This is close to half of the total supply of BTC in circulation. Such figures are normally seen in the latter stages of bear markets and not at the beginning. However, the buying volume is low.
The Accumulation Trend Score has remained below 0.5 since February 5, indicating that large holders are not increasing their net position exposure rapidly. Without new demand from large holders, the price range remains susceptible to changes.
Source: Glassnode
The 90-day average Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has dropped below 1.0, indicating that realized losses exceed realized gains. In previous cycles, periods below this level were measured in months before a stabilization of the situation.
Source: Glassnode
Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Crashes 13% as Saylor Buys the Dip
ETF Outflows and Defensive Positioning Grow
Off-chain data adds to the note’s caution. Spot Cumulative Volume Delta for major exchanges is strongly negative, indicating strong sell market orders. Distribution is active, not passive. US spot ETF flows are in deep net outflow territory.
Source: Glassnode
Previous rallies were consistent with strong inflows, especially in mid-2024. Current redemptions indicate that institutional demand has cooled. Without ETF demand, price support will be reduced.
In the derivatives market, funding rates are back to normal. Very large positions in a continued move upwards from late 2024 have dissipated. Implied volatility is around 47%, high but not extreme.
Short-lived moves above $62K that briefly materialized were quickly reversed when the price returned above $65K, indicating an options market that reacts but reverts to the mean.
Nevertheless, the 25 delta skew appears defensive: put options are priced at nearly 30% higher than call options, indicating persistent demand for protection against the downside.
Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, market makers are positioned in a short gamma zone between $55K and $70K, which increases the likelihood of larger price movements as soon as the momentum gathers.
Also Read: Binance Expands SAFU Fund With 1,315 BTC While Bitcoin Targets $84K
