After Bitcoin breached above the $10,900 range on 28th July, the king of all cryptocurrency has continued consolidation between $10,900 and $11,500. For a brief one hour on 2nd August, 9:30 UTC, the asset declined down to $10,599 but it was quick to recover its position in the aforementioned range.
However, the price of Bitcoin seemed to waver over the past 72-hours. Since the drop, Bitcoin hasn’t been able to claw back above $11,500, let alone reach its high of $12,000 from August 1st.
The sideways movement was stirring up mighty speculation between analysts as they wondered whether the next big move would be bullish or bearish.
Speaking of believing in extreme scenarios for Bitcoin, Vinny Lingham, CEO of CIVIC expressed a remarkably head-turning statement. With the resistance at $13,000-$15,000 proving a tough nut to crack, Lingham stated that it did not bother him.
#Bitcoin doesn’t conform to the typical Sharpe Ratio calculations. For instance, if Bitcoin doubled from here, it’s likely to go past $50k, which would be a 5x increase from today. This essentially means a 2x increase produces, in effect, a 5x upside.
— Vinny Lingham (@VinnyLingham) August 4, 2020
According to him, if Bitcoin entails another rally from here and doubles in valuation, it is likely to breach past $50,000, registering a new-all time high value for BTC.
He explained that Bitcoin does not conform to the rules of Sharpe Ratio calculations. The ratio is basically a measurement index for an investment that is estimated by accounting for ROI with respect to its risk. Sharpe ratio is the average return “earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk.” In light with that idea, the CEO of Civic stated,
“A typical Sharpe Ratio with a 50% downside projection (~$5k) and a 200% upside projection ($20k) would produce a Sharpe Ratio of 4. If you do the adjustment to $50k, the adjusted Sharpe Ratio would be 10 – which is usually a great bet.”
However, the main hook of his comment was that Bitcoin was likely going to hit another low at $5000 if Bitcoin doesn’t go all the way to $50,000. He believed that $20,000 was not a “resting point” for Bitcoin as expected by the rest of the market.
So Is Bitcoin awaiting such a massive swing?
Although anyone’s guess is good at the moment, Bitcoin reaching $50,000 within the next bull-run is a little-farfetched. It is important to note that the Sharpe ratio does not account for the fundamental metrics of Bitcoin, which is equally important to consider in the crypto market.
Sharpe ratio mostly estimates BTC’s past reward to risk calculations, hence it is safe to assume that the past performance is unlikely to determine Bitcoin’s immediate future.
Therefore, it would kinda dreamish to count of Bitcoin to cross $50,000 at the moment. The largest digital asset is on the right path, but it is not there just yet.
