The Brazilian election starts on October 4, with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading with 45% and Flavio Bolsonaro with 42% of valid votes, according to the final poll by Datafolha. With such an exciting outcome of the election polls, Brazil’s crypto industry is getting into elections under new licensing and reporting standards.
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Datafolha released the poll on October 3 after interviewing 4,006 people living in 122 cities. The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil has set the voting period to be on October 4 between 8 am and 5 pm in Brasilia time, and the number of voters is estimated at 158.7 million.
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Brazil Election Could Lead to Runoff
Other final pre-election surveys also pointed to a second round. CNT/MDA placed Lula at 47.8% of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 42.1%, while Datafolha’s runoff test showed Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%. These figures indicate a closely contested race, but polling does not determine the eventual election result.
The election is taking place as Brazil’s crypto sector adjusts to a regulatory framework introduced during Lula’s current administration. The Central Bank of Brazil has issued regulations regarding the supervision of virtual asset services, including the criteria of authorization, governance, consumer protection, internal controls, and anti-money laundering activities.
For crypto companies, the regulatory changes matter regardless of the election result because several measures are already effective or scheduled. The Central Bank’s framework requires covered virtual-asset providers to seek authorization, while related foreign-exchange rules cover certain international transfers involving virtual assets and fiat-referenced assets.
Brazil Election Could Shape Crypto Regulation
Resolution BCB 588, released on September 23 and taking effect on October 1, introduces reporting obligations for virtual-asset transactions using self-custodied wallets. The institutions concerned are to report certain information to Coaf whenever a transfer to or from a self-custodied wallet exceeds $10,000 or the corresponding amount.
The measure does not prohibit self-custody and does not establish a $10,000 transaction ceiling. Rather, the new measure introduces more reporting for transactions with wallets that use users’ private keys. The Central Bank said the change is intended to improve monitoring and risk assessment.
The timing gives the Brazil Election added relevance for the industry because the next administration will inherit rules that have only recently entered into force. The existing regulations will not simply vanish once voting is over, and further measures would require going through the official process in Brazil.
Brazil Leads Global Crypto Adoption Rankings
In its 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index, Chainalysis placed Brazil as number one in the world, making its regulations applicable to its exchanges and users in addition to other countries. The report projected the Brazilian crypto-economy at $252.5 billion and noted that Brazil is one of the top four countries in the world in all four measurements applied in its new crypto adoption index methodology.
Brazil was number two in cross-border flows, number three in total service flows, number three in domestic peer-to-peer transactions, and number four in on-chain balances. Chainalysis noted that Brazil is not number one in any individual index, but because of its consistency in all four measurements, it got the highest grassroots adoption score.
The data also illustrates the significance of stablecoins and the practical application of cryptocurrencies in the market. Chainalysis indicated that the crypto-economy of Latin America increased by 9.8%, whereas Brazil election still remained the largest market in Latin America, worth $252.5 billion. On the other hand, there was a 1.6% contraction in the economy of Brazil.
Brazil Election Shapes Crypto Regulatory Outlook
According to the Brazilian TSE, the first round will occur on October 4, and a second one, if needed, will occur on October 25. It will influence the political leadership of the country, but the current framework of the Central Bank will continue during the period of transition.
The regulatory agenda for the Brazil Election also goes beyond the election itself. The regulation in the form of Resolution BCB 589 restricts certain transactions between Central Bank-regulated entities and non-authorized virtual-asset service providers on November 6, except for the exemptions stated in the rule. Thus, there is an ongoing compliance deadline for companies after the elections as well.
Brazil is going into its election with a significant cryptocurrency market and a more structured regulatory environment. The next government will receive a set of licensing requirements, anti-money laundering regulations, and self-custody reporting rules along with a market estimated at $252.5 billion by Chainalysis.
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