Galaxy Digital cut its 2026 CLARITY Act passage estimate to 50%, pointing to a tighter Senate calendar and little public progress before the August recess. The firm had earlier placed the odds at 60%.
The revised forecast came from Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn. He said time has become the main barrier for the bill. He argued that the issue is no longer only policy detail.
According to Thorn, inactivity in the public is now a signal for the market. He argued that negotiations have failed to generate the usual signs that precede a vote by the Senate, including the final text and timing for debate.
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CLARITY Act Waits for Senate Text and Debate Schedule
Both the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee have been working on a combined version of the CLARITY Act.
Galaxy said that merged text has not been released. Lawmakers also have not announced a floor debate schedule.
According to Thorn, staff-level discussions remain constructive. However, he cautioned that private discussions must not be equated with legislative efforts. Thorn indicated that the legislation requires a public timeline in order to enhance its confidence.
Prediction market traders also show caution. Polymarket data shows traders give the CLARITY Act a 41% chance of becoming law in 2026. This reflects increasing pressure about the path of the bill in Congress.
The Senate adjourns till July 13. This means there will be less time before the August recess for congressional members looking for floor time.
Senate Recess Adds Pressure on CLARITY Act Timeline
Representative Anna Paulina Luna has been critical about the extended recess. She pointed out that the Senate Majority Leader John Thune secured unanimous consent on the adjournment of the sessions. That meant no senator objected to the move.
Luna said that she would not vote to open up the House floor until the senators returned to Washington. These remarks were made when the CLARITY Act was still awaiting action in the Senate. This legislation is already in the legislative calendar of the chamber.
Galaxy said the Senate schedule has become crowded. According to Thorn, The Senate also faces other legislative demands, including FISA measures and the annual National Defense Authorization Act.
Thorn explained that these pieces of legislation might reduce the time available for crypto market structure legislation.
Senate Action in July Could Decide CLARITY Act Path
Furthermore, the firm pointed out the political pressure over a housing bill. Thorn explained that President Donald Trump tied the support for the piece of legislation to the adoption of the SAVE Act. It has been another issue on the calendar of the Senate.
According to Senator Cynthia Lummis, the final text of the CLARITY Act would be released in about two weeks, on July 4. Public review will follow that, and potentially, there will be some action on the floor later in July.
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