The road to crypto market reform in the United States is becoming less certain. Galaxy Research now believes there is only a 50% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026. Just three weeks ago, the firm placed those odds at 60%.
The downgrade came from the firm’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn. He stressed that the lower odds are tied to timing rather than opposition to the bill itself. The proposal continues to move through Congress, but the Senate calendar is becoming increasingly crowded.
The Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14. It was added to the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. However, lawmakers have yet to set a date for a full Senate vote.
Also Read: Senate Bills Crowd July Agenda as CLARITY Act Moves Closer to Key Vote
Galaxy Research CLARITY Act Faces Senate Delays
According to the firm, the biggest challenge is the shrinking amount of available Senate floor time. Several major issues are competing for attention, including the SAVE Act, housing legislation disputes, the reauthorization of FISA Section 702, and the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act.
These competing priorities have left little room for crypto legislation. The firm believes that if Senate leadership does not schedule a vote by early July, consideration of the bill could be pushed into September. That delay could create new political complications as lawmakers begin focusing on midterm election concerns.
Galaxy Research CLARITY Act Still Has Path Forward
Despite the downgrade, the firm has not ruled out success. The firm noted that key provisions still need broader bipartisan support. Among the unresolved issues are conflict-of-interest rules and developer protections linked to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
If lawmakers can release a unified version of the bill in the coming weeks, resolve major disagreements, and secure a July vote, passage odds could climb back above 60%.
For now, the future of the Act remains balanced between progress and delay. The next few weeks may determine whether the legislation advances toward becoming law or faces another long wait in Congress.
Also Read: CLARITY Act Faces New Challenges as Senate Support Weakens Ahead of Key Vote
